As we head into Week 4's Monday Night Football doubleheader featuring the Miami Dolphins hosting the Tennessee Titans and the Seattle Seahawks taking on the Detroit Lions, the BetQL NFL Model has pinpointed several top betting picks. From moneylines to player props, here's where you can find value based on projections and betting odds.
Dolphins -145 ML vs. Titans (3-Star Bet)
- Model Projection: Dolphins -188 ML
- Implied Win Probability: 65.28%
- Projected Score: Dolphins 21, Titans 17
Despite a quarterback change with Tyler Huntley starting in place of Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins remain the better team, especially when considering the alternative options of Skylar Thompson or Tim Boyle. Huntley represents a slight downgrade from Tua but still positions the Dolphins well to win this matchup. The BetQL model projects a strong value here, as the Dolphins’ moneyline at -145 offers significant value compared to the model's projection of -188, implying a 65.28% win rate.
Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
- Model Projection: 5 receptions, 105 receiving yards, 1 TD
Tyreek Hill is one of the most explosive playmakers in the NFL, and the BetQL model has identified his receiving yards prop as being drastically undervalued. With a projection of 105 yards, this line of 51.5 is far too low, making this bet an easy target. Even with Huntley at quarterback, Hill's ability to create separation and rack up yards after the catch makes this a strong play at -125 odds.
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Lions -180 ML 1H vs. Seahawks (3-Star Bet)
- Model Projection: Lions -240 ML
- Implied Win Probability: 70.64%
- Projected Score (1st Half): Lions 14, Seahawks 10
For the first half of the Lions-Seahawks matchup, the BetQL model shows significant value on Detroit’s moneyline. The Lions have been fast starters this season, and the model projects them to take a lead into halftime with a score of 14-10. With the current line sitting at -180, there’s a substantial gap in implied odds, making this a worthwhile 3-star bet.
Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
- Model Projection: 4 receptions, 65 receiving yards
Tyler Lockett is in a prime position to exploit the Lions' secondary, which has struggled against wide receivers so far this season. No team has allowed more targets, receptions, or receiving yards to opposing wideouts than the Lions. With Lockett projected for 65 yards, his current prop of 43.5 receiving yards presents great value, making it a solid bet at -115.
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