Coming out of Florida, tight end Kyle Pitts was one of the most hyped prospects at the position in many years. His athleticism was off the charts, his big play ability lauded, and his size and strength was unmatched for his class. All of this led Atlanta to draft him at No. 4 overall in the 2021 NFL Draft, which made him the highest drafted tight end in NFL history. Everyone expected him to come in and immediately be a security blanket for the Falcons, but also be a deep threat with how quick he was for his size.
Three years down the road, and pretty much everyone can admit that he has been a massive bust to this point in his career. He started out his rookie season in 2021 with some promising numbers, generating 1,026 yards on 68 catches, but only a single touchdown all year. In 2022, he missed seven games with injury, and managed just 356 yards and two touchdowns. Last year, he played in all 17 games again, but still couldn not get things going, with only 667 yards and three touchdowns.
Through two games in 2024, Pitts has just six catches for 46 yards and a TD. One reason for this could be a very interesting stat shared by Scott Barrett from Fantasy Points: Pitts' first-read target share is at 6%, down from 19% under Arthur Smith. (Brock Bowers is at 27%.) Pitts ranks 39th among all TE’s first-read target share, behind three Saints TE’s and three Steelers TE’s.
A first-read target in fantasy football is a target that a receiver earns when the quarterback throws to them within the first set of options they check after taking the snap. The first read can be a single receiver's route or multiple receivers running routes on one side of the field.
With Kirk Cousins under center and a new coaching staff, Pitts hasn’t been as involved in the offense as many would have predicted, so maybe Atlanta knows something more than we do about him. Otherwise, I’m not sure why you wouldn’t have your former No. 4 overall pick be a top option on designed plays.
From a betting standpoint, this stat can be used to take advantage of a market like total receptions, where Pitts has a line of 3.5 at most places. He has not had four receptions in a game since December 3, 2023 against the New York Jets when he had exactly four. That is seven straight games where he has failed to go over this line, and he only had four or more in five games all of last season.
Pitts just doesn’t have a good outlook right now, and he is trending rapidly toward being a huge bust. I find it unlikely he remains a Falcon for much longer.
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