The New York Mets got some revenge on the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 2 by blowing them out 7-3, after the Dodgers blew them out in Game 1 by the score of 9-0. Neither of the first two games has been close, and both games have gone over the total. That isn’t super shocking considering the potent offenses involved here, but I think we could start to see scoring go down a bit as the series goes on. We head to New York now with the series tied 1-1.
The time has finally come for the Dodgers, and they will have to throw RHP Walker Buehler tonight on the road against the Mets. It seems like they have done as much as possible to avoid using him, and for good reason. The last time we saw him in Game 3 against the San Diego Padres, he went five innings while allowing six earned runs and seven hits, as well as a walk and zero strikeouts.
Buehler was a Cy Young contender just a few years ago, but after having to get Tommy John surgery, he hasn’t been the same pitcher. Across 17 starts this season, he owns a 4.68 xERA and 4.49 xFIP, and has shown decreased command, velocity, and stuff. Unfortunately, he is not even close to the pitcher he used to be.
He also hasn’t pitched now in more than a week, with that last start coming on Oct. 8. He hasn’t faced the Mets at all this season. The Dodgers used several long relievers in Game 2, including Brent Honeywell, Landon Knack, and Edgardo Henriquez. That means that they are going to try and get as many innings as possible out of Buehler. While it is probably tempting to bet his under 14.5 total outs pitched, he still went five innings in his last contest despite giving up six runs. I think manager Dave Roberts will leave him out there to give his bullpen a rest, even if Buehler really struggles again.
On the other side, RHP Luis Severino gets the nod for the Mets. He had a decent 2024 regular season, owning a 3.88 xERA and 4.12 xFIP, and I’d rate him as a league average arm. While he hasn’t pitched since Game 2 against the Phillies on Oct. 6, he has been very good in his two postseason starts. He’s given them 12.0 innings of work, while allowing six runs, two walks, and 10 strikeouts. His overall performance has been much better this season than it was in 2023, when he was awful with the Yankees.
The Dodgers have not faced Severino since he joined the Mets, and I would imagine manager Carlos Mendoza will be very careful with him here. Los Angeles had one of the best offenses in baseball against right-handers when fully healthy, including a 133 wRC+ over the last month of the season. They also had one of the lowest strikeout rates, so I would be interested in taking Severino under 4.5 strikeouts for plus money around +110.
New York has the better overall bullpen, ranking 7th in xFIP compared to 19th for the Dodgers. However, the Dodgers high-leverage arms are more well rested for this game. The Mets used Edwin Diaz, Phil Maton, and Ryne Stanek in Game 2.
Defensively, advanced stats are mixed. The Dodgers are 4th in DRS while the Mets are 14th, but in terms of OAA, the Mets are 11th while the Dodgers are 19th. Overall, they would rate very similar. On the basepaths, the Dodgers have a clear advantage, as the Mets are a bottom five team in BsR.
As for bets, I think the Mets should be slight favorites here at home against Buehler. They are +105 in some places, so getting plus money presents some value in my opinion on New York. The obvious play in this game would be to bet the over at 7.5, but I think we could see a lower scoring affair.
Temperatures are supposed to be in the low 50s for this game with 8 mph winds blowing in, according to the latest forecasts. In an already slightly pitcher-friendly park like Citi Field, that could really decrease the run scoring environment from warm L.A.
Best Bets: Mets ML (+105), Under 7.5 (+100), Severino Under 4.5 K's (+107)
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