The New York Mets have their backs against the wall now after they dropped Game 4 to the Los Angeles Dodgers last night, which gave L.A. a 3-1 series lead. The Mets now have to win three straight games against one of baseball’s most talented teams in order to advance, and two of those games will be played on the West coast, if they are played at all. Desperation will be at the highest level for New York. Interestingly, the Over is 4-0 in this series, with every game having an offensive explosion. In addition, none of these games have been close, either. It has been a blowout one way or the other, so can we get a close game tonight?
Los Angeles will start RHP Jack Flaherty, their addition from the Detroit Tigers at the trade deadline. In the regular season, he finished with a 3.51 xERA and 3.00 xFIP, some very good numbers. He started Game 1 of this series and was totally dominant, going seven innings without allowing a single run and only two hits, as well as two walks and six strikeouts.
Coming into the playoffs, he was struggling with a very poor month of September (4.07 xFIP), but has regained his previous form in the postseason thus far. This could partially be due to the extended rest he has gotten between starts (10 days between last regular season start and first postseason start, six days between NLDS start and NLCS start.) He won’t have that luxury here, as it has been just four days since he was last on the mound, so it will be interesting to see how he does on short rest.
Still, I doubt he goes nearly as long as he did in Game 1. The Dodgers have blown out the Mets three times in this series, and as a result, their best bullpen arms haven’t had to be used. They should all be well-rested and ready to go, plus, there is an off day tomorrow in case there is a Game 6. There may be some value in betting his Under 15.5 outs.
On the other side, LHP David Peterson takes the hill in the most important game of the season for the Mets. He finished the regular season with a 4.58 xERA and 4.10 xFIP, and my thoughts on him are well-known if you have been reading my stuff. I consider him to be a below-average arm, but with how much the Mets have had to use their bullpen as of late, they are probably hoping he can go through the Dodgers lineup at least a couple of times without imploding.
Since he is a lefty, he also puts Shohei Ohtani and the red-hot Max Muncy in their worst split, as they historically have been worse at the plate against lefties. Freddie Freeman as well, if he does play tonight. Peterson is the only left-hander the Mets have available, so he is their only hope to neutralize them, so I think he will be out there a while. I’d bet his props over, including 3.5 hits allowed, 1.5 walks allowed, 1.5 earned runs allowed, and over 3.5 strikeouts.
Once again, wind will be blowing in at around 8 mph, and temperatures will be in the mid 60s. Plate umpire Bill Miller is graded as “very pitcher friendly” by Ump Scorecards through his career. Even though it seems like every game is guaranteed to go over lately, I still see value in taking the Under at 7.5.
Best Bets: Mets ML (+116), Under 7.5 (-112), Peterson Over 3.5 Ks (+106), Peterson Over 3.5 Hits Allowed (-109), Peterson Over 1.5 BB (-120), Peterson Over 1.5 Earned Runs (-105)
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