Padres at Dodgers - Game 5 (Series Tied 2-2)
It all comes down to this. There is nothing quite like a win or go home game in any sport, but the MLB Playoffs offer some of the best drama on television. Game 5 between two NL West rivals promises to be electric, and the Padres and Dodgers will fight for their season in Los Angeles. The Dodgers are favored in this one at home, sitting at around -140 on the moneyline. The total is set at 7.5, as it has been for every game this series.
The Padres will send RHP Yu Darvish to the hill tonight, who they were able to save for this game after starting Dylan Cease on short rest in Game 4. During the regular season, Darvish registered a 3.64 xERA and 3.99 xFIP, which shows that he was an above-average arm in 2024. He started in Game 2 of this series, and looked quite good, going 7.0 innings and allowing just a single run. This will be the fifth time he faces the Dodgers this year, and even though they have seen him a lot, Darvish has mostly dominated them in his career. He has held them to a combined .594 OPS in 300 plate appearances.
Los Angeles will start rookie RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and with fellow starter Jack Flaherty also on full rest, they could use both starters for the bulk of this game. Yamamoto was very good in his 90.0 innings this season, owning a 3.44 xERA and 2.86 xFIP, but did struggle against San Diego. He allowed 13 runs in 9.0 innings against the Padres in the regular season. Flaherty was also very good, with a 3.51 xERA and 3.00 xFIP in 162.0 innings of work, but also was not as effective against the Padres. He has allowed seven runs in 10 ⅓ innings against them, including four runs in Game 2.
I expect both teams to be very aggressive in terms of their pitching plan. The Dodgers were in Game 4, using a lot of their bullpen arms, which is why I think they will try to reserve the first five or six innings for the two starters in Yamamoto and Flaherty. San Diego might take the same approach as L.A. did in the previous game, and send a different arm to the mound every inning. As a result, Darvish might only see the Dodgers lineup twice, so taking unders on his props might be the move.
At 7.5, I see some value in the over for this game, but not by a lot. With how managers will play this game, I don’t expect them to allow anyone to struggle much before yanking them. I’d look to play this game live, depending on how it starts. If it starts high-scoring, I’d look to bet a live under, and vice-versa.
The Dodgers are a much better result for sportsbooks in terms of futures liability, as the Padres are one of their worst outcomes. I’m inclined to take them, but again, I don’t see a huge advantage here.
Best Bet: Unders on Darvish + Yamamoto props, look to bet total live at Over 6 or Under 9
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