Looking for an edge on Monday Night Football in Week 4? The Seahawks visit the Lions, and there’s value to be found in a Same Game Parlay. By teasing the Seahawks up to +10.5, betting on Jaxon Smith-Njigba to rack up 50+ receiving yards, and banking on the Lions scoring under 24.5 points, this +280 parlay has solid potential. Let’s break down each leg and why these picks could deliver in a game where public opinion might be leaning too heavily on Detroit.
Seahawks at Lions: Seahawks +10.5, Jaxon Smith-Njigba 50+ Receiving Yards, Lions Team Total Under 24.5 (+280)
Leg 1 - Seahawks +10.5: I like the Seahawks in this game a lot, so teasing them up from 4.5 to 10.5 seems like a great bet to me. The public is all over the Lions, as they always are, with Detroit getting 71 percent of the spread bets and 67 percent of the spread money. The sportsbook is going to want Seattle to keep this game close, and I’m sure with the amount of moneyline parlays that involve the Lions, they would rejoice if the Seahawks managed to win the game. I have also just generally not been impressed with the Lions. They should have lost Week 1 at home to the Rams, they did lose Week 2 as a -7.5 favorite at home to Tampa Bay, and beat the Cardinals 20-13 last week. Mind you, Arizona just had 40 dropped on them by a rookie QB.
Leg 2 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba 50+ Receiving Yards: This is kind of a sleeper pick because no one has been noticing how effective JSN has been so far this year. He is tied for the most receptions on the team at 17 with D.K. Metcalf, and only has three less targets. He has 175 yards so far and is averaging 10.3 yards per catch. The Lions have not been exactly spectacular defending the pass, and I think alot of their attention will be on stopping Metcalf. I think we are getting some good value on him here to get us 50+ yards through the air.
Leg 3 - Lions Team Total Under 24.5: I think this will be a lower scoring game than a lot of people expect it to be, and with how the public is all over Detroit, they will suffer from that the most. 68 percent of bets and 73 percent of the money is on the over in this game as well, so Vegas will be rooting for a low-scoring game here. In addition to just siding with what the books need and correlating that, everything I said about Detroit in the first leg is also part of this. What exactly have they done that makes people think they will go off on the Seahawks?
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