In just a couple weeks, Super Bowl LIX will kick off between the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs. Everyone and their brother will be looking to bet on this game, as no other event in the world garners as much betting activity quite like the Super Bowl does. From side and totals, to player props, to all kinds of novelty props like Gatorade color, everyone will be trying to find an edge in any way they can. I have been going through all kinds of stats, figures and trends to share with our readers, and I think I found a trend that is worth writing about.
The Eagles rolled over the Washington Commanders 55-23 in the NFC Championship game, seemingly scoring at will. They opened that game with an immediate long touchdown run by Saquon Barkley, and that set the tone for the rest of the game. Washington was helpless, which we could have expected considering their defense was ranked 30th against the run in 2024. However, maybe it wasn’t a good thing for Philly to flex their muscles in the game, as historically that has meant disaster.
Teams that have scored 40+ points in their conference championship game have gone just 3-7 straight up in the Super Bowl. Most of these teams are unable to replicate that kind of effort two weeks in a row, and it has cost them. This happens all the time in sports, however. I always say, you want to fade teams the next week when they are coming off a big performance, as that is a classic let down spot when everyone is betting on them.
The last team to score 40+ in their conference championship was the 2016 Atlanta Falcons, and we all know how that ended for them. The three teams to actually win the Super Bowl after scoring over 40 points were the 1991 Washington Redskins, 2004 New England Patriots, and 2014 New England Patriots.
Now, this go around could certainly be different. The Chiefs are an unbelievably popular team, and I think most NFL fans legitimately believe that the league is making sure they get this three-peat for the headlines. However, we also saw last week that the Buffalo Bills were the public underdog. I would imagine a lot of those bets were “hate-wagers” against the Chiefs, because people are tired of seeing them every single year.
Honestly, it will all come down to how popular the Chiefs are this week as compared to the Eagles. If you start to see Philadelphia become a public underdog because everyone hates Kansas City, then you can be assured that the Chiefs will win another Super Bowl. However, if everyone bets the Chiefs because they believe it is rigged for them to get their three-peat, then perhaps a wager on the Eagles is actually warranted.
Right now, 60% of bets are on the Chiefs -1.5, as well as 54% of the money. We’ll have to see if the Eagles can become just the fourth team to win the Super Bowl after scoring 40+ in their conference championship, and the first since the 2014 Patriots.
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