Super Bowl LIX is right around the corner, with the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs going to battle yet again, This is the second time in three years these two teams have met in the big game, with the Chiefs winning 38-35 the first go around. Will the outcome be different this time, or are we once again in store of a high-scoring affair? Everyone has an opinion on that, and the total has moved up from 48.5 to 49.5 within an hour of the open. Clearly, there was some money coming in on the over.
Personally, I think we are in store for a lower-scoring contest. Just about everyone expects this to be a shootout between Patrick Mahomes and Saquon Barkley on the ground, but there is reason to believe that neither of these teams are going to have tons of success moving the football. I think we are going to see a lot of action from the running backs, which leads to more time being chewed off the clock. This isn’t abnormal for the Eagles obviously, but the Chiefs haven’t been a great rushing attack all year.
Let’s take a look at the team totals and my favorite bet for each.
Kansas City Team Total Under 26.5 (-130, BetMGM)
While I am leaning on the Chiefs to win this game, as I believe the “three-peat” storyline is too good for the NFL to pass up, I don’t think they are going to be lighting up the scoreboard either. The Eagles are the No. 1 ranked defense in the NFL against the pass, and they did a pretty good job last week against Jayden Daniels and the Commanders. They also rank 1st in yards per play allowed, so they rarely give up huge plays, and allowed the fewest first downs of any team in the league this season.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs have got to be one of the worst offenses we have seen make the Super Bowl in a while. They ranked 23rd in yards per play this season and lacked explosive plays down the field. They also were just 23rd in Red Zone efficiency, and when you are that poor down in scoring position, it just seems like a miracle this team is even in this game. However, this is a very well-coached team, and they know all of this stuff. Personally, I think they keep the ball on the ground more than usual, as Philadelphia’s biggest area of weakness is against the run.
I think 26.5 is too large of a team total here, and this game feels like a 23-20 type of game in my opinion. I’ll take the under.
Philadelphia Team Total Under 24.5 (-125, BetMGM)
Obviously if I like the under in the game, I am also going to take the under for the Eagles as well. This offense has been carried by the incredible play of superstar RB Saquon Barkley, as he has been just bowling over every defense he has faced this year. The team ranks 2nd in rushing yards and once again will almost certainly rely on it again here. However, how successful they can be is questionable. The Chiefs defense has actually been very good at stopping the run, ranking 8th in the league in 2024. They have also been good at stopping teams in the red zone, ranking 8th in defensive efficiency down there. There is reason to believe they can at least slow down Barkley enough so that he doesn’t rattle off 60 yard runs against them.
I think they have to know that making Jalen Hurts beat them is the way to play. The Eagles ranked 29th in passing and we all know the struggles of Hurts this season. I don’t foresee him all of the sudden being able to torch the Chiefs through the air, although that is where they are most vulnerable.
As I said, I think this game is lower-scoring than many think with a lot of running from both teams, which leads to an under. With the last matchup ending 38-35, the over is going to be very public, and I will fade that here.
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