As UFC Fight Night Paris approaches on Saturday, all eyes are on the matchup between French lightweight Benoit Saint-Denis (13-2-0) and the seasoned Brazilian Renato Moicano (19-5-1). The fight is a stylistic contrast, with Saint-Denis’ power and aggression up against Moicano’s technical striking and submission skills. The odds favor Saint-Denis, with the Frenchman opening as a -250ish favorite (he’s now at -300 at BetMGM), and there's value in backing him to win by KO/TKO/DQ (-110, BetMGM).
Saint-Denis, fighting on home soil, has a reputation for raw knockout power. Despite a recent loss to Dustin Poirier, Saint-Denis nearly finished the former interim champion before tiring, reportedly due to a staph infection. This resilience makes him a dangerous threat, and his knockout ability is undeniable, as seen in his stoppage victories in three UFC bouts. Bettors can find more reasonable odds by backing Saint-Denis to win by KO/TKO/DQ at -110, a prop bet that reflects his striking advantage.
Moicano, known for his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu expertise and technical striking, has faced top-level competition throughout his career. He secured a TKO victory over Jalin Turner in his last fight, but his chin has been tested, especially at lightweight. Against power punchers like Rafael Fiziev, he was finished, and Saint-Denis presents a similar challenge. While Moicano’s striking defense is solid, absorbing a whopping 3.68 significant strikes per minute (for context, fighters in Top 10 of the division absorb less than 1.8 per minute) could prove costly against Saint-Denis, who lands 1.7 knockdowns per 15 minutes—one of the best rates in the division (3rd, to be exact).
The stakes are high for both fighters. A win for Saint-Denis would position him closer to the top of the division, while a victory for Moicano would reaffirm his status as a contender. However, given Saint-Denis’ power and Moicano’s susceptibility to heavy hitters, the most likely outcome appears to be a Saint-Denis knockout victory.
For those looking at betting angles, Saint-Denis by KO offers the best value, especially considering Moicano’s vulnerability to power punches and the momentum Saint-Denis brings into this fight. I might also take a shot on Saint-Denis to win in Round 1 (+225) as well since seven of his 15 fights have finished in the opening round.
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