As the 2024-2025 NBA season approaches, the race for Coach of the Year is relevant. Thanks to the latest BetMGM data, we have a clear picture of where the public’s money is going and which coaches are emerging as the top contenders for the coveted award. Let’s dive into the betting landscape, focusing on key insights, odds movement, and my best bets for the upcoming season.
BetMGM Data: Budenholzer Leads the Charge
The biggest story from the BetMGM data revolves around Mike Budenholzer, the new head coach of the Phoenix Suns. Budenholzer started with long-shot odds of +2500 but has seen his price shorten significantly to +1600. His rise in popularity is backed by 24.0% of tickets placed, and he accounts for 14.8% of the handle, making him the sportsbook’s biggest liability.
This massive leap in support is a clear indication that bettors are buying into Phoenix’s potential under Budenholzer. The Suns finished last season with a 49-33 record, good for 6th in the Western Conference. With an elite core of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, and Jusuf Nurkić, Budenholzer has all the tools he needs to make a significant impact in the desert.
What makes the Suns even more dangerous this season is the addition of Tyus Jones and Monte Morris, two traditional point guards who can run Budenholzer’s system more effectively. Last year, the Suns often lacked a true floor general, but with Jones and Morris in the fold, they’ll be able to run a more structured, dynamic offense. This could lead to a big jump in wins—and ultimately make Budenholzer a serious contender for Coach of the Year for the third time in his career (on three different teams).
Odds Leader: Tom Thibodeau (+700)
At the top of the BetMGM odds board is New York Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau, whose price has dropped from +1400 to +700. The Knicks had an impressive 50-32 record last season and were one of the best defensive teams in the league under Thibodeau.
The Knicks’ blockbuster trade for Karl-Anthony Towns has further bolstered Thibodeau’s chances. However, I’m not completely sold on Thibodeau winning the award this season. For Thibodeau to take home the hardware, the Knicks would likely need to finish as the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. While they’ve improved with Towns joining forces with Jalen Brunson, I find it hard to envision them overtaking juggernauts like the Celtics in the standings.
Given the challenge ahead, I believe Thibodeau is somewhat overvalued at his current odds, especially compared to other coaches with strong potential. If he wins, it’d be his third overall win, including his second with the Knicks.
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My Best Bet: Taylor Jenkins (+1200)
One name that jumps out to me is Memphis Grizzlies head coach Taylor Jenkins. His odds have moved slightly from +1400 to +1200, and while he isn’t getting the same level of attention as Budenholzer or Thibodeau, I believe Jenkins offers fantastic value.
Last season, Memphis was derailed by a series of unfortunate injuries and off-court drama surrounding star player Ja Morant, which led to a disappointing 27-55 finish. However, let’s not forget that Jenkins guided the Grizzlies to 56 wins just two seasons ago, followed by a 51-win campaign the year after.
With Ja Morant returning, paired with a healthy Desmond Bane and former Defensive Player of the Year Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis could easily return to the top of the Western Conference. Adding Marcus Smart and rookie Zach Edey further strengthens the Grizzlies’ roster. The bench is strong and GG Jackson will return from injury midseason, so Memphis should have one of the deepest rotations in the league.
I wouldn’t be shocked if Jenkins leads the Grizzlies back to the No. 1 seed in the West, which would make him a top contender for Coach of the Year at +1200.
When considering a Coach of the Year bet, it’s important to remember that winning games is critical. Historically, winning at least 50 games has been a key benchmark for Coach of the Year winners, as 44 winners have accomplished that feat. Having an All-NBA talent on the roster can also elevate a coach’s chances. Last season, Daigneault had Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Mike Brown had both De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis before that. Morant is that same elite caliber player and Bane is on the cusp.
Overall, this is my favorite bet by a huge margin and Memphis could realistically win 25-to-30 more games than they did last regular season. This would be his first career Coach of the Year award.
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Final Thoughts
While Mike Budenholzer is currently the public’s favorite, and Tom Thibodeau has emerged as the odds-on leader, my pick for Coach of the Year is Taylor Jenkins. Memphis has all the ingredients to be a top team in the West again, and Jenkins’ value at +1200 makes him the best bet in my opinion. Keep an eye on the Grizzlies as they could make a serious leap back to the top of the standings, putting Jenkins in prime position for the award.
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