Thursday’s NBA slate may be small, with only three games on the schedule, but it offers one standout betting opportunity: Giannis Antetokounmpo to exceed 48.5 points, rebounds, and assists as the Bucks take on the Jazz. Giannis has been in peak form, hitting this mark in four of his last five games. Against a Utah defense that ranks near the bottom in key metrics like points off turnovers, second-chance points, and fastbreak points allowed, Giannis is positioned for a big night. Let’s break down why the Greek Freak is the best prop bet of the day.
Bucks PF Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 48.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists vs. Jazz (-108, BetRivers)
Let’s start with the points aspect. Averaging 31.0 points on the year, the Greek Freak has surpassed this mark in three consecutive games and in four of the last five and has an awesome matchup against Utah. Shooting 63.3% from the floor this season, Giannis has abandoned the three-point ball entirely (hasn’t made a single three on 0.5 attempts per game) and has been attacking the paint with ease. Ranking 23rd in Defensive Rating, Utah has allowed 24.6 points per game off turnovers (worst in NBA), 19.6 points per game on second-chance opportunities (worst in NBA), 18.4 fastbreak points per game (4th-worst) and 54.0 points in the paint (6th-worst in NBA) while playing at the 5th-fastest pace.
Antetokounmpo averages the most points per game in transition (8.3) in the entire NBA and has converted 75% of his shot attempts on that play type. Overall, he averages an NBA-best 9.7 field goals made on an NBA-high 12.7 field goals attempted from less than five feet from the basket and should be very motivated to have a big individual performance since Milwaukee has had a dismal 1-6 start and is in need of a victory. (The Jazz are also 1-6.)
Giannis should grab a bunch of boards in this matchup, too. He averages 12.3 boards on 18.2 potential rebounds per game and it just so happens that the Jazz own the worst field goal percentage (41.3%) in the entire NBA. While Utah is a good offensive rebounding team, they’re a terrible defensive rebounding team and own the 4th-worst Defensive Rebounding Percentage (67.7%). As mentioned above, the Jazz give up a ton of second-chance points and Giannis has huge upside as an offensive rebounder and second-chance opportunist in this matchup.
Finally, Antetokounmpo has averaged 6.3 assists on 11.8 potential helpers per game this season. As mentioned above, Utah plays at a fast pace and has gotten killed in transition and in the paint this year, which means Giannis should find himself with a bunch of assist opportunities in this one. Utah has allowed 30.0 assists per game this year, 2nd-most in the NBA.
For all of the reasons above, I’m all in on Giannis today.
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