The 2025 Cognizant Classic presents a prime opportunity to target outright winners in a field that lacks some of golf’s biggest stars. Shane Lowry (+2000) and Russell Henley (+2000) bring proven course history and strong form, while Denny McCarthy (+3300) could be a live longshot. With PGA National’s challenging conditions in play, accuracy and putting will be key. Here’s why these three players stand out as the best bets to win this weekend.
Shane Lowry to Win (+2000, BetMGM)
The Cognizant Classic kicks off this weekend, and there are some big names that will be contending in this event. One of those is Shane Lowry, the Irish golfer that has a fantastic history at this course in his career. He was the runner-up in 2022 and finished top-5 in 2023. Taking a look at his advanced stats, his game should do well here. He’s been accurate off the tee, has been great on approach, and the moment won’t be too big for him as a veteran.
He’s a proven winner, having won three PGA Tour titles, including a major championship, and I think getting 20/1 odds on him to win in a field that doesn’t include Scottie Scheffler is some great value. His consistency on the course being in position to win is what makes him one of the favorites, and for good reason.
Russell Henley to Win (+2000, BetMGM)
It really is hard not to take Henley here as well to win the Cognizant Classic with how he has been playing lately and his history at this course. In 10 starts at PGA National, he has finished inside the top-25 six times, and has already won here as well in the past. He hasn’t missed a cut since The Players Championship in 2024 either, so his game has been at its peak over the last year.
Henley also thrives in events where wind could be a factor, and looking at the weather, that seems like it could certainly be the case this weekend. He has elite driving and approach accuracy, and is ranked sixth in challenging conditions. He has pretty much all the things you look for in a winner at PGA National, and there is very little reason not to have at least some small peanuts on him at 20/1 to do so if you are betting on golf.
Denny McCarthy to Win (+3300, BetMGM)
At 33/1 odds, I think you could do a lot worse than a wager on Denny McCarthy to get a win this weekend. He’s a golfer that has been playing really well in 2025, finishing top-5 at the Genesis Invitational earlier this month, and he has also finished inside the top-16 in three of his last four starts. Again, this is a field that does not include a lot of the best players in the world, so that means it can be much more wide open than usual, and the door will be open for longshots like this.
McCarthy ranks 22nd in scoring average and 48th in greens in regulation this season, and he has been one of the best putters in the PGA so far. You need that at a course like PGA National, where a short game can make or break your day. His odds are this long because he has never actually won a PGA Tour event, but his upside is certainly there with how he has been playing as of late to finally get his first win. If he can put his great putting together with his recent play, and he can get some luck with other guys faltering a bit, I think 33/1 is a great payout on him here.
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