The Philadelphia 76ers enter the 2024-25 season with high expectations, but a closer look at their roster and key player situations reveals serious concerns. At DraftKings, the Sixers' regular season win total is set at 52.5, but given the looming injury and load management issues for both Joel Embiid and Paul George, betting the under at -125 looks like the smarter play.
Embiid’s Load Management Will Limit Wins
Joel Embiid, the reigning MVP and the centerpiece of the Sixers' success, is expected to miss a significant portion of the regular season due to planned rest. Embiid has openly stated he doesn’t plan to play in back-to-back games anymore, a strategy aimed at keeping him fresh for a deep playoff run. In a recent interview, Embiid said the following, per ESPN, "I would probably never play back-to-backs the rest of my career." This comes after years of wear and tear on his knees, and Sixers GM Daryl Morey has reinforced the idea, saying the team will prioritize Embiid's long-term health by managing his minutes carefully.
Philadelphia has 15 back-to-back games this season, meaning Embiid is guaranteed to miss at least 15 games if he sticks to his plan. That drops his maximum number of games to 67. Even more concerning is the possibility of Embiid sitting out additional games due to lingering injuries or rest during tough stretches. His injury history suggests that even 67 games may be an optimistic projection.
Historically, the Sixers' performance has been heavily reliant on Embiid’s presence. Per CBS Sports, last season, Philadelphia was 5.9 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor compared to when he was sitting. When Embiid missed 28 games last season due to a knee injury, the Sixers plummeted in the standings, falling from 5th to 7th in the Eastern Conference and eventually needing the play-in tournament to secure a playoff spot. His absence during any stretch will likely result in a drop-off in the Sixers' overall win total.
Paul George’s Injury Concerns Add to the Uncertainty
The addition of Paul George this offseason was meant to give the Sixers another All-Star talent alongside Embiid, but George’s own injury issues can’t be overlooked. He left a preseason game on Monday with a knee hyperextension, adding another layer of risk to an already fragile situation.
George has struggled to stay healthy in recent years, and like Embiid, he is expected to sit out back-to-backs. Load management has been a regular part of George's career, particularly as he enters the later stages of his career. If George misses significant time alongside Embiid, the Sixers will be forced to rely heavily on Tyrese Maxey and a supporting cast that lacks the same star power. While Maxey is an emerging star, it’s unreasonable to expect him to carry the team to 53-plus wins on his own.
Paul George’s Injury Concerns Add to the Uncertainty
The addition of Paul George this offseason was meant to give the Sixers another All-Star talent alongside Embiid, but George’s own injury issues can’t be overlooked. He left a preseason game on Monday with a knee hyperextension, adding another layer of risk to an already fragile situation.
George has struggled to stay healthy in recent years, and like Embiid, he is expected to sit out back-to-backs. Load management has been a regular part of George's career, particularly as he enters the later stages of his career. If George misses significant time alongside Embiid, the Sixers will be forced to rely heavily on Tyrese Maxey and a supporting cast that lacks the same star power. While Maxey is an emerging star, it’s unreasonable to expect him to carry the team to 53-plus wins on his own.
Inconsistent Supporting Cast
While the Sixers made moves to bolster their depth in the offseason, including adding Andre Drummond, Eric Gordon, Reggie Jackson, and Caleb Martin, these players are role players at best and come with their own limitations. Drummond remains an elite rebounder but offers little else, Gordon is past his prime, and Jackson and Martin are inconsistent performers. They are unlikely to fill the void left by Embiid or George on nights they don’t play, making it even harder for the Sixers to consistently win games.
Head coach Nick Nurse will also face challenges keeping rotations steady and building chemistry with so much uncertainty surrounding the availability of his two stars. Juggling lineups and making adjustments when Embiid and George miss games could lead to disjointed performances, further hurting the Sixers' win total.
Betting the Under on 52.5 Wins
With Embiid’s load management, George’s injury concerns, and a roster that lacks dependable depth, the Sixers are a prime candidate to finish under 52.5 wins this season. Even if they play well during the games both Embiid and George are available, the sheer number of missed games will likely prevent them from securing a top seed in the Eastern Conference.
Philadelphia is a team built for playoff success, but the regular season will be a grind, with many nights featuring a lineup missing one or both of their stars. Betting on the under at -125 is a wise move, as a 52-30 record or worse is well within reason for a team that will likely focus more on being healthy for the playoffs than pushing for a top regular-season record.
As seen in the past by teams like the Miami Heat, this strategy can pay off. Let’s see if it will for Philadelphia.
Bet $5 on the NBA and get $200 instantly in bonus bets at DraftKings! CLAIM NOW
Related
