What a crazy Game 3 we got last night between the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians, with multiple lead changes near the end of the game. It was back and forth home run action that turned into an instant postseason classic that the home team eventually won 7-5 in extra innings. Those of us that had the under, like me, were quite disappointed after the game was sitting at a 3-1 score until the very late innings. However, I can’t be that mad since I was quite entertained by the game itself.
The Yankees hold a 2-1 lead in the series and will look to go up 3-1 tonight.
The Yankees will send AL Rookie of the Year favorite RHP Luis Gil to the mound tonight. He hasn’t pitched in a game since September 28, nearly three weeks ago. He finished the regular season with a 3.83 xERA and 4.36 xFIP in 151.2 innings, and I’d rate him as around league average. Still, I have concerns for him tonight after going so long without starting a game. He already has command issues (4.57 BB/9) and now will be asked to start after nearly a month off in cold temperatures against a Guardians lineup that doesn’t strike out much. That usually doesn’t go well, but New York will want some length for him after they used six relievers last night. High-leverage arms such as Luke Weaver, Tim Hill and Clay Holmes have now pitched in three consecutive games.
RHP Marcus Stroman will be available behind him as a long relief option, but he is not particularly reliable (4.87 xERA, 4.50 xFIP).
On the other side, RHP Gavin Williams will make his first start since September 22, even longer than Gil. Williams finished the regular season with a 4.14 xERA and 4.12 xFIP, and I would grade him around the same as I would Gil as an average arm. He faced the Yankees once this season, back in August, allowing three runs in 4 ⅓ innings of work. The good news for the Guardians is that their bullpen hasn’t been used as extensively as New York’s to this point. They did use seven pitchers yesterday, but only one of them in Pedro Avila has worked all three games of the series. None of their high-leverage arms have been used in multi-inning stints thus far. As they are down 2-1 in the series, I would expect them to be ultra-aggressive with their bullpen after Williams exits.
The Yankees have the best offense in baseball against right-handed pitching, with a 120 wRC+ as a lineup against them. Williams has been good limiting the deep ball (0.85 HR/9), which he will need to do against the Bronx Bombers, who live off of homers.
Cleveland will be in their weaker split against a right-hander, with a 95 wRC+ as a lineup. However, they did get to Gil in his August start against them, where he went just three innings and gave up three runs.
I think both teams will be trying to keep their starters out there for as long as possible to keep their bullpens fresh, especially New York. I’d target the over for several Gil props, including strikeouts and walks allowed. Williams maybe less so, but they are still worth a look at decent prices.
It will once again be chilly in this game, but as I mentioned yesterday, Progressive Field has been a much more offensive ballpark this season than in years past with a 104 Park Factor. This is compared to a 94 Park Factor from 2021-2023. The plate umpire will be Chris Segal, who is graded as “hitter friendly” in his career via Ump Scorecards. I’ll probably stay away from the total, though.
Best Bets: Guardians ML (+105), Gil Over 2.5 BB (+160)
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