No. 24 Illinois and No. 22 Nebraska kick off Big Ten play on Friday night under the lights in Lincoln, with the Huskers entering as 8.5-point favorites and the over/under set at 43.5. Both teams boast a 3-0 record heading into this matchup, but the line suggests that Nebraska is expected to control the game, especially on their home turf at Memorial Stadium.
Nebraska's freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola has been a revelation through the first three games of his collegiate career. Despite his youth, Raiola has demonstrated poise beyond his years, completing 73.8% of his passes—good for ninth in the nation. He has thrown five touchdowns with just one interception, maintaining an efficient offense that ranks 12th nationally in first downs and has converted 50% of its third-down attempts. Raiola's accuracy also places him ninth in the country, underscoring Nebraska's offensive consistency.
Defensively, the Cornhuskers have been dominant, allowing only 6.6 points per game, which ranks in the top 10 nationally, and holding opponents to just 70.3 rushing yards per game, the best in the country. Their red zone defense has been especially stout, allowing just one touchdown on five opponent trips inside the 20. This could prove pivotal against an Illinois team that has a dominant red zone offense, with all 12 opportunities this season resulting in points.
Illinois couldn’t have asked for a better start to the season, and as a result, find themselves ranked in the AP Top 25 for the first time in five years. Quarterback Luke Altmyer will face Nebraska for the second time in his career. The Illini suffered a 20-7 home loss last season with Altmyer throwing for 289 yards with just one touchdown with one interception.
This season, Altmyer has done a great job of taking care of the football, throwing six touchdowns without a single interception through three games. His improvement in decision-making will be crucial against a Nebraska defense that excels at forcing opponents into mistakes, especially in pressure situations.
Illinois will likely need to lean on its passing game, as Nebraska's rush defense is the stingiest in the country. The Illini's ability to move the ball through the air and capitalize on their red-zone opportunities will be critical if they hope to keep pace with Nebraska. However, Illinois ranks just 73rd in passing offense, which isn’t great considering the defenses it has faced aren’t anywhere near the Huskers’ caliber.
With how dominant Nebraska has been on defense this year, coupled with Raiola running the offense, the Huskers have the edge on both sides of the ball. Despite Altmyer taking great care of the ball this season, I think this offense is going to struggle overall. Nebraska will force them to become one-dimensional and they won’t find the endzone quite as easily as they have in their three previous games. Give me the Huskers to cover -8.5 at home!
That said, regardless of who wins this game, winning the Big Ten is still going to be a tough task for either team. Heading into Week 4, Illinois is +25000 and Nebraska is +2000 at BetMGM.
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