The MLB regular season is just a few weeks away now, with the Cubs and Dodgers kicking things off over in Japan. Now is the time to start taking a look at the futures market before things really get going to see if you can find some value before numbers start drastically moving up and down. One market that can be overlooked at times is Reliever of the Year, an award that goes to the best relief pitcher in both the American and National leagues.
The award almost always goes to closers, as these guys are very high profile and are responsible for shutting the door on opposing offenses. Stats like saves, ERA, and FIP all play a part here, with the most dominant guy taking it home. BetMGM has both markets open right now, and there are plenty of ways you can bet on it.
Last season, Emmanuel Clase of the Cleveland Guardians won it in the AL with 47 saves to his name. St. Louis Cardinals closer Ryan Helsley won it in the NL with 49 saves, which led MLB. In fact, 17 of the 22 winners have ranked in the top three in their respective leagues in saves. Nine different winners have led the AL or NL in saves.
AL Reliever of the Year Odds
Emmanuel Clase, Guardians (+300)
Mason Miller, Athletics (+400)
Devin Williams, Yankees (+500)
Josh Hader, Astros (+500)
Andres Munoz, Mariners (+900)
Jhoan Duran, Twins (+1100)
Felix Bautista, Orioles (+1200)
Jeff Hoffman, Blue Jays (+1200)
Pete Fairbanks, Rays (+1500)
Liam Hendriks, Red Sox (+2200)
AL Reliever of the Year: Orioles CP Felix Bautista (+1200, BetMGM)
Hopefully you read my article where I detailed why I love the Baltimore Orioles to come out of the American League. There are plenty of reasons to love Bautista at 12/1 odds to win this award in 2025 in a bounce back campaign. He won it in 2023 with an unreal 1.48 ERA, 33 saves, and a ridiculous 110 strikeouts in only 61 innings before he missed the entire 2024 season after Tommy John surgery.
Assuming that he comes in fully recovered from that injury, and it seems he is, he will have a great chance to once again win this award. Baltimore’s lineup is dangerous, and in my opinion, could be the highest-scoring offense in baseball with their star power. As such, I think he is going to have plenty of save opportunities, which is very important to winning this award. If he can pitch the way he did before Tommy John, with a fastball that can reach 100 mph and a very nasty splitter pitch, he should be a strikeout machine again.
Clase is the favorite at 3/1 odds, which makes sense after he won last year with an insane 0.61 ERA and 47 saves, but I have some concerns about him. It isn’t just his postseason struggles (8 runs allowed in 14 innings), but his very heavy workload over the last three years (226 games). I could see some regression coming his way. I love the value here with Bautista at 12/1, a previous winner and proven arm with a very strong lineup for save opportunities.
NL Reliever of the Year Odds
Edwin Diaz, Mets (+400)
Ryan Helsley, Cardinals (+450)
Raisel Iglesias, Braves (+500)
Tanner Scott, Dodgers (+550)
Robert Suarez, Padres (+700)
Ryan Walker, Giants (+1100)
Kirby Yates, Dodgers (+1300)
Alexis Diaz, Reds (+1500)
Ryan Pressley, Cubs (+1700)
Jordan Romano, Phillies (+1700)
NL Reliever of the Year: Mets CP Edwin Diaz (+400, BetMGM)
I generally don’t like taking the favorite in future markets, but the value on Diaz is there at 4/1 right now. He won this award in 2022 with a crazy good 1.31 ERA and 32 saves, missed the entire 2023 season with injury, and came back last year to the tune of a 3.52 ERA and 20 saves. Obviously, that was not his best season, but there were reasons to believe he was very unlucky.
In 2024, he still had a very good 27.6% K rate, showing that he still has that swing and miss stuff that he has shown in the past. Just like Baltimore, the Mets lineup should be lethal with the addition of Juan Soto, and I expect Diaz to have plenty of save opportunities in 2025. If you are finding a pattern, you are right. I like to take guys that have previously won the award or coming off a down/injured season, who are on a team whose lineup will give him plenty of chances for saves.
At 4/1 odds at BetMGM, I think he is a very solid choice here. The rest of the NL isn’t very frightening to me. Helsley won last season despite being on a team that failed to make the playoffs, an outlier since he was only the third reliever to win the award and not make the playoffs. Devin Williams, who would have been a very strong candidate with the Milwaukee Brewers, was traded to the New York Yankees in the AL. His biggest threat is certainly Tanner Scott in Los Angeles with the Dodgers.
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