Ohio State and Notre Dame play in the CFP National Championship on January 20. Unfortunately, the sportsbooks don’t seem to think this game is going to be remotely close, as the Buckeyes are a -8.5 favorite at most places. The question will be if Notre Dame can stay within the margin, and can they really win the game? As a Notre Dame fan, I hope so, but I am also a realist. There is no question that Ohio State is more talented than we are, and probably is the most talented team in the country. It is going to be a battle.
Personally, I feel this game goes one of two ways. Either Notre Dame wins the game outright in a huge upset, or we get blown out of the water similar to what I had to witness in 2013 against Alabama. As such, I am going to spread out my wagers on some plus money lines that I think have a good shot of hitting, especially when you consider recent history in these championship games.
I am playing Ohio State alt lines up to -20.5, where you can get +300 odds for them to win by three touchdowns. You can also play the key number of -16.5 at +200 and -13.5 at +150. Just take a look at some of the recent CFB Championship games. Last season, Michigan beat Washington 34-13, a 21-point margin. In 2022, Georgia destroyed TCU 65-7. In 2021, Georgia beat Alabama 33-18. In 2020, Alabama destroyed Ohio State 52-24. I could go on, but you get the picture. Many of these championships have been very uncompetitive. I could 100% see Ohio State winning by multiple scores in this game, especially if they get a lead.
I do not trust Riley Leonard throwing the football. He’s a fantastic dual threat, but in a scenario where he would be forced to pass, disaster is bound to come. If OSU gets a decent lead, it likely will only grow bigger when Notre Dame has to get away from the rushing attack. Ohio State's defense ranks second in Passing Success Rate allowed, 18th in Havoc, fourth in big play prevention and second in Quality Drives allowed. Oregon, Indiana, and Texas have all been snuffed by this secondary, and the Irish don’t have the weapons or QB to beat it.
However, I would also throw a wager down on Notre Dame moneyline at around +280. The key for them winning this game will be to avoid digging themselves into a hole where they have to pass the ball. If they keep things close, the threat of their run game between the backs and Leonard’s legs gives them the ability to keep the ball out of OSU’s hands. Their elite defense needs to force turnovers as well, because when they have, it has ended well for the Irish. Al Golden’s defense leads the nation in takeaways with 32, and in their last 13 games, Notre Dame is 11-0-2 in the turnover battle. Their last loss came to Northern Illinois, a game in which they were -2 in the TO department.
I feel overall the best way to play this game is by taking alternate spreads. It is either going to be a total blowout by OSU, or the Irish will finish off one of the most improbable runs we have seen in recent times. Take shots on the plus money and lets see if we can profit here.
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