March is finally here, and that means it’s time for one of the best betting opportunities of the year—mid-major conference tournaments! While everyone focuses on the big-name schools gearing up for the NCAA Tournament, the real value lies in these smaller conferences, where elite defenses, smart coaching, and favorable tournament structures can give certain teams a serious edge.
I’ve done the research, crunched the numbers, and found the best mid-major tournament bets for this season. Whether it’s a dominant defensive squad, an overlooked top seed, or a team with sneaky-good odds, these are the picks I’m rolling with. Let’s cash some tickets before the madness truly begins!
Missouri Valley Conference: Illinois State (+1500, BetMGM)
Illinois State offers strong value at +1500 to win the Missouri Valley Conference tournament, given their ability to compete with the league’s best teams. The Redbirds (18-13, 10-10 MVC) played Northern Iowa and Drake tough, losing by a combined 15 points, and split their meetings with Belmont and Bradley. Led by sophomore forward Chase Walker (15.1 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 58.1 FG%) and sophomore guard Johnny Kinziger (15.0 PPG, 42.8 3P%), Illinois State has transformed offensively this season. They’ve improved their three-point shooting by 9% from last year (29.2% to 38.0%) and boast a 48.2% team field goal percentage, their best since 1986-87. The Redbirds also rank sixth in program history in free throw shooting (75.2%). With a favorable opening matchup against Missouri State (9-22, 2-18 MVC) and a winnable quarterfinal against Belmont (21-10, 13-7 MVC), Illinois State has a realistic path to the title game. Their combination of interior scoring, perimeter shooting, and veteran leadership makes them a dangerous underdog in this tournament.
Ohio Valley Conference: UT Martin (+3500, BetMGM)
UT Martin presents intriguing value at +3500 to win the Ohio Valley Conference tournament, given their resilience in close games. The Skyhawks (17-14, 10-8 OVC) are the most resilient team in the conference, having played six overtime games and 17 contests decided by six points or fewer. They also lead all of NCAA Division I men’s basketball with eight one-point or overtime losses, seven of which came in league play. While they’ve struggled to close out those matchups, their ability to keep games tight means they’re never out of a contest. Junior guard Tarence Guinyard, the league’s second-leading scorer (16.8 PPG), provides a reliable offensive weapon in crunch time. UT Martin split its season series with SEMO and swept SIUE, proving they can compete with top teams in the OVC. With their tournament run beginning against in-state rival Tennessee Tech, the Skyhawks are a sneaky sleeper to make a deep run in Evansville.
Patriot League: Holy Cross (+25000, BetMGM)
Holy Cross is a true longshot at +25000, but they’ve shown they can compete in the Patriot League despite finishing last (5-13). The Crusaders battled tough all season, with narrow losses to Lehigh (2 points), Army (3 points), Navy (overtime), Bucknell (4 points), and Loyola Maryland (5 points). Their 4-point loss at Bucknell—one of the league’s top teams—proves they can hang with anyone. Freshman Max Green (14.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 3.5 APG) won Patriot League Rookie of the Year, senior forward Caleb Kenney (11.5 PPG, 4.8 RPG) made the league’s all-defense team, and sophomore Joe Nugent (12.4 PPG) can get hot, as shown by his 22-point, 5-9 three-point performance against Bucknell in the season finale. While American and Bucknell (both 13-5 in league play) are the favorites, Holy Cross’ ability to keep games close makes them an interesting longshot worth a sprinkle.
Related
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US) 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. This promotional offer is not available in Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico.