This week’s Thursday Night Football matchup features an NFC East clash between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants. Both teams enter tied at the bottom of the division with 1-2 records after Week 3. The Cowboys are looking to halt a two-game losing streak after a brutal loss to the Baltimore Ravens, while the Giants are coming off their first victory of the season, a 21-15 win over the Cleveland Browns.
The look-ahead line for this game was Dallas -7, but after their disappointing Week 3 loss, the number reopened at Cowboys -4.5 on the road. The total opened at 44.5 and has been pushed up to 45 at BetMGM, with some sportsbooks offering it as high as 45.5.
Based on what I’ve seen from both defenses through the first three weeks, I’m going to grab the over 45 at BetMGM.
The Cowboys' defense looked dominant in Week 1 against the Browns, but after three weeks of play, it’s becoming clear that Cleveland’s offense is just extremely inept. Dallas was shredded by the Saints and Ravens in their subsequent games, allowing 14 first-quarter points in both matchups.
The Ravens' first two drives against the Cowboys combined for 141 yards on 12 total plays, both ending in touchdowns. A similar scenario unfolded in Week 2 against the Saints, with New Orleans racking up 150 yards and two touchdowns on just eight plays. By halftime, the Saints had accumulated 310 yards on just 26 plays, leading to 35 points.
So far this season, the Cowboys’ defense is surrendering 372.7 yards per game, ranking 28th in total defense. The most significant concern is their run defense, which ranks last in the league, allowing 185.7 yards per game. Overall, Dallas has the second-worst scoring defense, giving up 29.7 points per game.
While the Giants' run game is among the bottom third of the league, they did manage to rush for 5.9 yards per carry against a Commanders unit ranked higher than the Cowboys, sitting at 20th according to PFF. I expect New York to lean heavily on their ground game Thursday, so targeting Devin Singletary's props might be worthwhile.
Offensively, the Cowboys lead the league in passing offense with 269.7 yards per game. Having played from behind in their last two contests, Dallas has been forced to throw the ball more frequently, but this remains a strength they can exploit against a Giants' defense that ranks in the bottom third in opponent completion percentage (70.0%).
New York could also be without cornerbacks Adoree’ Jackson and Dru Phillips, who were listed on the injury report and did not practice on Monday. Their absence would significantly weaken the Giants' secondary, potentially leading to an even bigger game for the Cowboys' passing attack. Keep an eye on their status throughout the week.
These two teams have met eight times since 2020, averaging a total of 49.63 points per game. Grab the over 45 at BetMGM before it moves higher!
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