Elly De La Cruz has emerged as one of the most electrifying players in Major League Baseball, and with his unique combination of power and speed, expectations are high for his 2025 campaign. BetMGM has set his home run total at Over/Under 23.5 home runs (-115), a number that has generated significant betting interest. After launching 25 home runs in 2024, De La Cruz has already proven his ability to hit for power, but the question remains whether he can build on that success and clear this total in his second full MLB season.
There are plenty of reasons to believe in De La Cruz’s ability to go over this number. His raw power is undeniable, as evidenced by his 12.7% barrel rate and 45.7% hard-hit rate last season. However, his 31.3% strikeout rate held him back from reaching even greater heights. Despite this, he still surpassed 23.5 home runs last season, showing that even with significant swing-and-miss concerns, his natural ability to drive the baseball plays at the highest level. Another factor working in his favor is his home stadium. Great American Ball Park has consistently been one of the most hitter-friendly environments in baseball, ranking as the best park for home runs from both the left and right sides of the plate. Last season, De La Cruz hit 12 of his 25 home runs at home, and with another year of experience, he has the potential to increase that number.
Perhaps the biggest reason for optimism is the noticeable adjustment he has made to his stance this spring. With a shorter bat path, his swing has looked more compact and efficient, which could lead to fewer strikeouts and more frequent contact. If he had better luck with called strikes last season, his overall strikeout rate would have dipped from 31.3% to 25.3%, which suggests there is already room for natural improvement without even considering his swing adjustments. The splits from last season also indicate that De La Cruz has more room to grow as a power hitter. Nineteen of his 25 home runs came as a left-handed hitter, while he managed just six from the right side. Additionally, he hit 17 home runs in the first half of the season but just eight in the second half, which suggests that pitchers adjusted to him, and fatigue may have played a role in his drop in production. With another year of experience, he should be able to make the necessary adjustments to sustain his power over a full 162-game season.
The biggest concern for De La Cruz reaching this total is whether he can make enough contact. His 218 strikeouts in 2024 were a major issue, and if he struggles to improve in that area, it could limit his opportunities to tap into his immense power. However, with a refined approach and the potential for a lower strikeout rate, he has a legitimate chance to make a major leap in his second full season. His combination of bat speed, strength, and a favorable home park creates the perfect conditions for another big power year.
With everything considered, betting the Over on 23.5 home runs (-115) at BetMGM looks like a strong play. De La Cruz’s new stance, raw power, and hitter-friendly home park all point toward another 25+ home run season, and if he can take the next step in his development, he has the potential to hit 30 or more. While his high strikeout rate remains a concern, even marginal improvements in contact could unlock even more power, making the Over a solid wager heading into 2025.
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