Running back Kyren Williams emerged as a dynamic force for the Los Angeles Rams during his breakout sophomore campaign in the 2023-24 season. After a limited role in his rookie year, where he appeared in just 10 games and managed just 35 carries for 139 yards without finding the end zone, Williams exploded onto the scene last year.
He transformed into the Rams' offensive workhorse, racking up an impressive 1,144 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns on 228 carries in only 12 games. His remarkable leap in production not only solidified his status as a key playmaker but also gave the Rams' ground game a much-needed boost.
If Williams can build on his success from last season, backing him to exceed his game-to-game rushing props is likely to be profitable. However, when it comes to his receiving numbers, it might be wise to fade Williams.
His receiving prop for Week 1 against the Lions is set at 14.5 yards, with the under juiced at -120 on BetMGM. Dating back to last season, Williams has failed to top 14.5 receiving yards in his last six games.
I expect that trend to continue on Sunday in Detroit for several reasons.
For one, Williams underwent offseason foot surgery to address a lingering issue from a previous procedure, which caused him to miss much of the team’s training camp. Additionally, head coach Sean McVay has announced that Williams will return punts this season, which will increase his overall usage, but taking extra hits on special teams could limit his role as the primary running back. This is especially true considering the Rams drafted running back Blake Corum, who could help shoulder some of Williams' workload if necessary. Corum also offers significant upside as a pass-catching back, which may further limit Williams' involvement in the receiving game.
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