Instead of betting on Bronny James prop specials this year, find a charity that’s near and dear to your heart and donate your money there. The sportsbooks are offering odds on Bronny mainly to capitalize on his name, knowing the public will likely overestimate his impact.
If Bronny’s performances during the NBA Summer League or the Lakers' first three preseason games are an indication of what he’ll look like during the regular season, it’s hard to imagine he’ll get anywhere close to reaching the prop marks that BetMGM has set.
Bronny’s shooting struggled in his first four Summer League games going 0-15 from deep before finding a little rhythm over his final two games. He finished Summer League averaging seven points on 32.7% from the field and 13.0% from deep.
In his first three preseason games, Bronny has played 35 minutes, scoring just two points on 1-11 shooting from the field. His +/- marks have been -12, -16, and -12. With stats like that, I find it hard to believe that Bronny will have any sort of major impact on the Lakers rotation this year.
The odds for James’ various prop specials have gotten significantly worse over the course of the last few months. During Summer League, DraftKings had these props listed:
- Bronny James 20+ Points in any 2024-25 Regular Season Game (from +550 to +900)
- Bronny James 5+ Threes Made in any 2024-25 Regular Season Game (+1200)
- Bronny James 8+ Assists in any 2024-25 Regular Season Game (+1600)
- Bronny James to Record a Double Double in any 2024-25 Regular Season Game (+3500)
With just weeks to go until the start of the regular season, those odds have shifted with much longer odds at both DraftKings and BetMGM, which is reflected in the graphic below.
At such large prices, the odds are enticing, but the implied probability of these bets is still too generous based on what we've seen from Bronny.
Hitting 5+ threes in a game at 15-1 has an implied probability of 6.25%. If Bronny struggled to knock down shots from deep against other rookies and G-League talent during Summer Leauge, there is no way he's knocking down five threes in a regular season NBA game.
Bronny reaching 20+ points in any game has an implied probability of 10.00%. In order for any player to score 20+ points, they'd need to see significant playing time while also being efficient from the field, which Bronny lacks. There will likely be a handful of games where he receives a good amount of garbage time minutes, but even then, getting to this mark in a game that is likely already out of reach is unrealistic.
The books know that the public wants to bet on Bronny, which is why they post these bets. They'll gladly take your money. After all, Bronny was BetMGM's biggest liability to go No. 1 overall in the NBA Draft. My best advice is to stay far away from these props.
Get up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets at BetMGM! All you need to do is CLICK HERE, sign up for a new account, make your first deposit and bet! Don’t miss out!
Related
