Najee Harris heads into tonight's Monday Night Football showdown against the New York Giants on a hot streak, having rushed for over 100 yards in each of his last two games. In Week 6, he exploded for 106 yards on just 14 carries against the Raiders, averaging an impressive 7.6 yards per attempt. He followed that up in Week 7 with 102 yards on the ground against the Jets. This marks only the second time in Harris’ four-year NFL career that he's posted back-to-back 100-yard games.
Including the final two games of the 2023 season, where he recorded 122 rushing yards against the Seahawks and 112 against the Ravens, Harris has now surpassed the 100-yard mark in four of his last nine outings. As he faces a Giants defense that has struggled against the run, Harris has a strong opportunity to extend that streak tonight.
New York’s run defense has proven vulnerable, allowing a league-worst 5.4 yards per carry this season and an alarming 6.5 yards per carry over the last three games. It gave up 176 yards to Saquon Barkley last week, and earlier this season, allowed 133 to Brian Robinson Jr., and 94 to Aaron Jones, showcasing a pattern of struggling to contain physical runners like Harris.
While Harris' season average of 4.1 yards per carry places him tied for 32nd in the league, this number is skewed by a tough Week 4 outing against the Colts, where he was held to just 19 yards on 13 carries, averaging a lowly 1.5 yards per attempt. However, Harris compensated with his receiving skills, catching three passes for 54 yards—a career-best 18.0 yards per reception—demonstrating his versatility and ability to impact the game even when the ground game is hampered.
A key to Harris’ recent success has been his physical running style, particularly his ability to generate yards after contact. He’s averaging 3.09 yards after contact per carry and has forced 30 missed tackles this season, with half of those (15) coming in his last two games alone. In addition, he has notched seven runs of 10+ yards in this two-game stretch, making him a consistent threat for big plays.
Given the Giants' ongoing struggles against the run—ranking among the bottom 10 in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (138.1)—Harris is poised for another strong performance. His combination of power, agility, and a nose for big plays could make him a central figure in tonight’s matchup as Harris and the Steelers aim to capitalize on New York’s defensive deficiencies.
Harris’ rushing prop is set at 63.5, juiced -120 to the under at BetMGM, while his rushing attempt prop is set at 15.5. He’s surpassed his rushing yards total in five of his eight games, yet has only topped his attempt prop in four games this season. However, with how bad the Giants defense has looked lately, I would recommend backing the over on both numbers.
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