As college football kicks off its season, Week 1 offers a host of intriguing matchups that are drawing significant attention from sharp bettors. In this edition of our Sharp Report, we delve into three key games: #21 Arizona's massive 31-point favorite status against New Mexico, #20 Texas A&M’s surprising position as a favorite over #7 Notre Dame, and #19 Miami's close line against Florida. By examining the betting trends and sharp money flow, we'll uncover which teams are attracting heavy bets and what that could mean for your wagering strategy. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just looking to make informed picks, these insights will help you navigate the early-season landscape with a keen eye on where the smart money is moving.
1. #21 Arizona -31 vs. New Mexico
There are a ton of great night games on Saturday, but a lot of eyes are going to be on this matchup between the New Mexico Lobos and #21 Arizona Wildcats. Many will be looking to see if Arizona’s 2023 season was a fluke after they went 10-3 and had so much success in the Pac-12. Meanwhile, New Mexico is reeling after blowing a 31-14 lead to Montana State, who scored 21 unanswered fourth quarter points to win 35-31 in Week 0. The Wildcats are a substantial 31 point favorite in this game, expected to completely dismantle the Lobos at every turn. If you take a look at the betting percentages, it seems the pros actually are on the favorite this time.
Per BetQL at the time of this writing, Arizona is getting 62% of the money, but just 22% of the tickets on the spread, meaning that some very large wagers were placed on them. Typically, this identifies the sharp side, as the move valuable tickets are backing Arizona here. In contrast, New Mexico is getting only 38% of the money on 78% of the tickets, meaning that many of those are smaller sum wagers of general public money. The larger the contrast between money and wagers, the bigger the sharp advantage is. In this case, 40%.
2. #20 Texas A&M -2.5 vs. #7 Notre Dame
In one of the marquee Saturday matchups for Week 1 of the college football season, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish will travel down south to take on the Texas A&M Aggies. The Irish boast one of the best defenses in the country on paper, and will be looking for a season-opening win against a very good team to bolster their resume. On the other side, the Aggies strength also stems from their defense, so I would anticipate a lower-scoring affair here. Despite being ranked over 10 spots below the Irish, Texas A&M find themselves as favorites in this game at home, where they have one of the biggest advantages in college football at Kyle Field. When a lower-ranked team is a favorite against a higher-ranked team, there is a reason for that.
The Aggies are getting a whopping 79% of the money according to BetQL, but just 54% of the total spread tickets, indicating that they have a number of bets on them that are worth quite a substantial amount. Notre Dame is getting only 21% of the money here on 46% of the tickets, so a lot of the bets on them are smaller amounts from the public. Again, this is quite the disparity here, a 25% advantage in favor of A&M.
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3. #19 Miami ML at Florida
Another game that a lot of eyes will be on Saturday afternoon, the Miami Hurricanes will be taking on their in-state rival, the Florida Gators. This game is lined very close, with the Hurricanes being just a small -2.5 favorite and around -140 on the ML. A lot of sharp money has come in on Miami to win the ACC this year after Florida State’s early defeat, and many expect them to be serious contenders for a playoff bid in 2024. Meanwhile, Florida has one of the most difficult schedules in college football history, and will be looking to start their season off with a bang to get some momentum. However, the wiseguys clearly love Miami in every which way this year, including this game.
A whopping 95% of the money is on Miami’s ML, with just 76% of the tickets, so that is some insane amounts of cash on one side. Florida is getting only 5% of the total ML money, on 24% of the tickets. Clearly, those Gator tickets are for very small amounts at plus money that the public has been invested in. If you want to follow the sharp side this season, the Hurricanes might be your sleeper team to back.
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