As Week 4 of the NFL season approaches, the public has firmly placed its backing behind a few key teams. Bettors are riding the momentum of the undefeated Steelers as they face the Colts, while Cincinnati, despite being 0-3, is receiving a significant share of action against the Panthers. The Bills are also a popular underdog pick against the Ravens. In this report, we’ll break down where the public is putting its money and how the betting splits could impact the sportsbooks. Whether you're following the crowd or fading the public, here's everything you need to know about the biggest NFL betting trends for Week 4.
Steelers -1.5 at Colts
Pittsburgh is 3-0 to start their season, something that many of us did not see coming with their regular season win total set at 7.5 at the start. Their defense has been lights out, one of the best units in the entire league, while their offense has been one of the worst units in football. Still, even with an offense that doesn’t put up many yards or points, they have done one thing extremely well that has helped them win games. The Steelers do not turn the football over. Now they go on the road to face a Colts team that certainly could have lost to the Chicago Bears last week, as QB Anthony Richardson was dreadful once again, throwing two picks and only 167 yards passing.
As it stands, the Steelers are the most bet team of the weekend over at BetMGM. A whopping 75 percent of spread bets are on them to cover here at -1.5, a short number. They are also getting 73 percent of the money on the spread, so indeed, Pittsburgh is one of the biggest liabilities for the sportsbook this weekend. The public is all over them here, so what could possibly go wrong for Justin Fields and company?
Bengals -4.5 at Panthers
Anyone who knows anything about public betting splits in the NFL knew that this would be one of the most popular plays of the week for square bettors by a mile. Despite their win last week over the Las Vegas Raiders, no one wants a piece of the Carolina Panthers, who have built themselves a very bad reputation over the last couple of years. Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Bengals have given bettors such a good impression over the years, that they seem to be ignoring the fact the team is 0-3 to start the year. Or, they could be betting this simply because it is impossible for the Bengals to be 0-4. It can’t be true that maybe the Bengals are actually just a bad football team with a good quarterback.
Right now over at BetMGM, a massive 73 percent of the bets are backing the Bengals here to cover at -4.5. The amount of money on them to cover is even higher, at a gigantic 83 percent of the cash on that side. Again, the sportsbooks will be cheering on an Andy Dalton revenge game against his former team, as this will be quite the liability here for Vegas with all of the world on Cincy. The Panthers can’t win two in a row, right?
Bills +2.5 at Ravens
Whenever an underdog is one of the most popular plays of the week, that needs to flip a switch in your brain if you are going to be a profitable sports bettor. Buffalo is coming off of a total deconstruction of the Jacksonville Jaguars at home, whipping them 47-10 in a massive blowout. The Bills are now 3-0 on the season and have looked unstoppable over the first three weeks on offense. The public jumped off the bandwagon before the season, as they thought the Super Bowl window was closed on this team, but now they have grabbed onto the sides of this wagon yet again. Baltimore is still considered an AFC powerhouse, but they have started the season 1-2, and almost blew another huge fourth quarter lead last weekend against Dallas. The public isn’t as high on them as they might have been earlier in the year.
As it stands at BetMGM, 69 percent of the tickets are on Buffalo to cover the spread of +2.5. The public masses are backing the Bills, which is not shocking at all after what they have done this season, and they want the plus money that is being offered. Perhaps there is a reason that the 3-0 team is an underdog in this game to a 1-2 team, but who am I to argue with the people?
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