In NFL Week 4, player prop bets offer a great opportunity to capitalize on individual performances, whether it’s passing, rushing, or receiving yards. With matchups featuring high-powered offenses and exploitable defenses, there are plenty of strong value bets to consider. From Josh Allen’s favorable passing matchup against the Ravens to Najee Harris facing a vulnerable Colts run defense, this week’s slate provides several key prop picks worth targeting. Let’s dive into the top player prop bets to help you make the most of your NFL betting strategy.
Bills QB Josh Allen Over 228.5 Passing Yards vs. Ravens (-114, BetRivers)
Buffalo’s offense has been dominant with Stefon Diggs gone and Allen is off to a fantastic start, completing 75% of his passes for 634 yards, seven touchdowns and no interceptions while rushing for two more. He’d be the MVP if the season ended right now, especially since he’s led the Bills to a 3-0 start with wins over the Cardinals (34-28), Dolphins (31-10) and Jaguars (47-10). He’s thrown for 232, 139 and 263 yards in those three games, but now gets an awesome matchup against a Ravens defense that’s allowed an NFL-high 315.33 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks (291 to Patrick Mahomes, 276 to Gardner Minshew and 379 to Dak Prescott). As a small road underdog, I expect Allen’s arm to be very active on Sunday Night Football and unless Baltimore’s defense looks entirely different, I expect him to soar over this low 228.5-yard mark.
Bengals QB Joe Burrow Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns vs. Panthers (-148, BetRivers)
The Bengals are 0-3 and are currently in panic mode heading into this game against their former QB, Andy Dalton. Luckily for Joe Burrow, the Panthers have allowed 2.3 passing touchdowns per game this season, which is tied for the 2nd-most in the NFL. In Tee Higgins’ season debut in Week 3 against the Commanders, Burrow went 29-for-38 for 324 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions and given the lack of success in the running game, I expect him to be slinging the pigskin a ton in this one. His yardage mark (in the mid 250’s) is viable, but I’d rather grab him to throw a couple touchdowns instead over at BetRivers.
Steelers RB Najee Harris Over 63.5 Rushing Yards vs. Colts (-115, BetRivers)
With Arthur Smith as Pittsburgh’s OC, it’s been the Harris show at running back. He’s taken 20, 17 and 18 carries for 70, 69 and 70 rushing yards in three consecutive wins and now gets the best matchup possible against a Colts defense that’s allowed an NFL-high 136.33 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. Playing 56%, 45% and 59% of the snaps, the coaching staff has done a nice job preserving his energy and clearly put all of their faith in him (he has 10 red zone opportunities and backups Jaylen Warren and Cordarrelle Patterson have three combined). I think this is going to be Harris’ breakout game and will also grab some alt lines especially since Warren will likely be out with an injury this week.
Eagles RB Saquon Barkley Anytime Touchdown vs. Buccaneers (-133, Caesars)
With five touchdowns through his first three games on the Eagles, Barkley is arguably the best anytime touchdown bet of the week. Not only has he been dominant on the ground with 109, 95 and 147 yards, but he’s had four catches in back-to-back games. While Philly’s defense is a pass funnel and sells out to stop the run, they’ve been crushed by running backs in the passing game. In fact, no team has allowed more receptions per game (8.0) to running backs than the Bucs. Barkley’s receptions and receiving yards props are in play, but I’d rather just grab his anytime TD prop for some more safety.
Seahawks WR D.K. Metcalf Over 61.5 Receiving Yards vs. Lions (-115, Caesars)
Metcalf has posted 129 and then 104 receiving yards in back-to-back games for the 3-0 Seahawks and now gets the best-possible matchup in a potential Monday Night Football matchup against the Lions, who have allowed 203.0 receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts.
Jets WR Allen Lazard Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-115, DraftKings)
Broncos CB Patrick Surtain will be shadowing Wilson in this game, which is significant. Against Surtain in previous weeks, Metcalf (29 yards), George Pickens (29 yards) and Mike Evans (17 yards) have all struggled against the young star defensive back and I want to get in on the action. With that being said, I can’t recommend betting under 55.5 receiving yards for a WR of Wilson’s caliber. I can, however, back Lazard, one of Rodgers’ favorite other targets. He has posted 89, 11 and 48 yards in the three games with three touchdowns so far. Secondary passing options have performed well against Denver based on Surtain’s elite lockdown play including Tyler Lockett (six catches, 77 yards) and Chris Godwin (six catches, 53 yards, TD). I don’t hate an anytime TD bet but love this yardage play on Lazard most.
Bills TE Dalton Kincaid Over 36.5 Receiving Yards vs. Ravens (-125, BetMGM)
As seen above, I love Josh Allen’s outlook against the Ravens and Kincaid is my favorite buy-low option of the week. The Ravens have allowed 93.33 yards per game to opposing tight ends (2nd-most in NFL), including huge outputs from Brock Bowers (nine catches, 98 yards) and Jake Ferguson (six catches for 95 yards) in back-to-back weeks. Coming off a 41-yard game against the Jaguars, Kincaid is due for a breakout and this could be the week.
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