As we head into NFL Week 4, underdogs have already delivered surprise wins in each of the first three weeks. This trend makes it worth taking a close look at some promising upset picks. The New England Patriots, at +450 (BetMGM), are a longshot worth considering against a banged-up 49ers squad. Meanwhile, Andy Dalton and the Panthers could outplay a struggling Bengals team and the undefeated Vikings are undervalued at +122 against the Packers. With a history of surprises already this season, this week’s underdog bets could bring big rewards.
Patriots (1-2) at 49ers (1-2): +450
The NFL’s biggest underdog has won in Week 1, Week 2 and Week 3, so it almost feels necessary to at least sprinkle some on the Patriots to keep the streak going, right? This New England team could very easily be 2-1 right now (they lost to the Seahawks in OT in Week 2) and although their offensive line stinks and offense as a whole leaves a lot to be desired, their defense is a strong unit overall. If the Pats can revert back to the ground-and-pound gameplan that they had in Weeks 1 and 2 with Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson running the football, I like their chances in this one, especially with Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel out and George Kittle, Trent Williams and Brock Purdy all dealing with minor ailments/injuries during the week of practice leading up to the game.
With McCaffrey either out or failing to get 10 carries, the Niners are 2-4 SU and if Williams doesn’t play, that’d be even more concerning for the home team, as they’ve lost five in a row with him either out or on the field for less than half the snaps. Before the season, I also covered how Williams’ absence directly impacts Brock Purdy, so that’s a situation to monitor. Nonetheless, at +450, I’ll absolutely get in on this.
Panthers (1-2) vs. Bengals (0-3): +170
Andy Dalton has the opportunity to do the funniest thing ever this week: dominate his former team after starting the year as the backup in Carolina. Going 26-for-37 for 319 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions last week in his first start of the year against the Raiders, the Red Rifle will certainly have momentum on his side heading into this one against the Bengals, who haven’t won a game yet.
Something is wrong in Cincinnati right now and despite getting Tee Higgins back last week, weren’t able to beat the Commanders and made Jayden Daniels look like an MVP caliber QB in the process. I think Dalton will have another big week and Cincinnati’s defense will continue to fall apart.
Vikings (3-0) at Packers (2-1): +122
So far, the Vikings have looked completely dominant, beating the Giants 28-6 on the road, 49ers 23-17 at home and then the Texans 34-7 at home. Sam Darnold fits in perfectly to Kevin O’Connell’s offensive system, Justin Jefferson is as dominant as ever and Brian Flores has the defense looking like perhaps the best in the NFL. The defense has had five or more sacks in all three games this season, ranking first in that stat, first in QB pressures and have forced five interceptions as a result.
Jordan Love could make his return to the field for the Packers this week, but overall, it’s really difficult to not love what Minnesota has been able to do. I expect former Packers RB Aaron Jones to run extra hard against his former team this week as well and am happy to take the value and back the undefeated Vikings as the road underdog.
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