Ohio State is set to face off against Notre Dame in the CFP Championship on Monday, January 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Both teams exceeded expectations en route to the big game, but the Buckeyes are major 8.5-favorites after steamrolling Tennessee, Oregon, and Texas by at least 20 points apiece in the playoffs. The Fighting Irish, on the other hand, secured a pair of double-digit victories before barely edging out Penn State by three points. How will the offenses fair in their final game of the season, though. Let’s break down what bettors go about betting on the total.
The total for the CFP Championship is set at 45.5 points, so oddsmakers clearly think that defense will be more of a factor in the title game. Ohio State eclipsed its season average of 35.8 points by scoring 42 and 41 points in the first two rounds of the playoffs before posting 28 points against the Longhorns. Notre Dame fell short of the 37.0 points it averaged for the year in each of its three playoff matchups and will need to step it up to slow down the opposition’s dynamic offense on Monday.
This matchup will feature the nation’s two best scoring defenses. Ohio State ranked first with just 12.2 points allowed per contest while Notre Dame ranked second with 14.3 points allowed per game. However, the Buckeyes combined for 70 points against a pair of top-eight scoring defenses leading up to the CFP championship. The Fighting Irish dropped down a level against the pair of top-10 defenses they faced.
Best Bet: Over 45.5
Both defenses in this matchup are sturdy but Ohio State can do the bulk of the work and has proven that they have the chops to beat the breaks off elite defenses when their passing attack is rolling. Notre Dame has shakier quarterback play and a less talented receiving corps, but can move the chains enough on the ground to put points on the board. Both teams will be more aggressive than usual in the final game of the season, so the over seems like the best bet.
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