With Ohio State and Notre Dame being the top two defensive teams in college football, will the national championship game turn into a defensive slugfest? Will touchdowns be at a premium? On the other hand, both the Buckeyes and the Fighting Irish have had no trouble finding the end zone during their run to the title game. Since this is an interesting quandary, we thought to offer a little bit of guidance when it comes to making touchdown prop bets for the College Football Playoff title game.
Anytime Touchdown: Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard (+125)
If the Fighting Irish get anywhere close to the goal line, it’s a safe bet that Leonard will be keeping it and trying to run into the end zone. In the national semifinal, Texas made the mistake of not using Arch Manning, who is a better runner than Quinn Ewers. They also made the mistake of trying to run outside to get away from Ohio State’s defensive front. Notre Dame isn’t going to make that same mistake. They’ll keep the ball in Riley’s hands, especially with Jeremiyah Love dealing with a knee injury during the semifinal, so he might not be fully healthy. Also, Leonard has 16 rushing touchdowns this season - just one less than Love - and has scored one rushing touchdown in all three playoff games. With plus odds, Leonard offers good value as an anytime touchdown scorer in the title game.
First Touchdown: Ohio State WR Emeka Egbuka (+650)
It’d be an understatement to say that Ohio State has started fast during the playoffs, so it feels like a safe assumption that someone on the Buckeyes will be the first touchdown scorer on Monday night. It’s only a matter of who that player will be. As Penn State learned the hard way in the semifinals, Notre Dame has an outstanding secondary that prevented any wide receiver from making a catch the entire game. However, Ohio State isn’t going to be intimidated by that and will be happy to get their receivers involved early. Of course, freshman sensation Jeremiah Smith, who led Ohio State in receiving touchdowns this season, was a non-factor in the semifinals when facing a talented secondary. That leaves senior Emeka Egbuka as the best candidate to score the first touchdown. His experience and savvy will help him adjust to the Notre Dame defense quickly, allowing him to get open for a touchdown early in the title game.
Score 2 Touchdowns: Ohio State RB Quinshon Judkins (+425)
For a multiple-touchdown scorer in the title game, it’s a choice between Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson. Both players have had two multi-touchdown games in the playoffs thus far, so both are capable of repeating that feat against the Irish. It’s unlikely that Notre Dame will build a comfortable lead in this game, so whether the Buckeyes lead or this game remains close, they’re going to be happy running the ball, creating opportunities for both Judkins and Henderson. With Judkins getting more carries than Henderson late in the season and during the playoffs, he’s a little more likely than Henderson to notch his third multi-touchdown game of the playoffs.
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