Oneil Cruz is one of the most fascinating power hitters in baseball, and his combination of raw strength, bat speed, and freakish athleticism makes his Over 22.5 home runs prop an enticing wager in 2025. The 6-foot-7 Pirates slugger possesses an elite power profile, ranking third in average exit velocity, fifth in hard-hit rate, and fifth in barrel rate last season. Simply put, when he makes contact, he destroys baseballs.
Despite missing time in previous seasons, Cruz still managed to hit 21 home runs in 146 games. His ability to generate power is undeniable, but what truly sets him apart is his success against high velocity in the upper part of the strike zone.
“Oneil Cruz is 6-foot-7, with arms about as long as you could imagine a baseball player having. He is the exact type of hitter you would expect to drop his bat head and get his barrel to anything in the lower part of the zone. Instead, he mashes everything in the upper third,” wrote Esteban Rivera of FanGraphs.
Most hitters struggle against high fastballs, especially those thrown at 95 mph or faster, but Cruz thrives on them. “Out of all the players who saw at least 750 pitches last year, Cruz ranks first in xwOBA on pitches of at least 95 mph in the upper third. His .797 xwOBA ranks over .100 points higher than Juan Soto’s .654. Yes, the small sample is contributing to that gap, but regardless, it’s quite the feat. This is a player with a fifth-percentile whiff rate who can’t get enough of high heat. The league-wide whiff rate on pitches of at least 95 mph in the upper third was 26.9% in 2024; Cruz’s rate was 18.9%. He may struggle with making contact on the whole, but those issues almost entirely disappear when he sees high heat.”
Rivera also pointed out just how unique Cruz’s swing adjustments are against these types of pitches. “Cruz’s average swing length is 7.7 feet; the league average is 7.3. Cruz’s average swing length in the upper third against pitches 95 mph and above is 6.3 feet, an 18% decrease from his average swing length. Meanwhile, at the league level, the average swing length in the upper third against pitches 95-plus is 6.6 feet, a 9.5% decrease. Cruz does this while still averaging a 75.7 mph swing speed against these pitches. Basically, he is shortening his swing a ton and still swinging extremely fast relative to the rest of the league. It’s a freaky trait that most players just lack, unless they’re Juan Soto. And even then, Soto’s swing length is 7 feet against this subset of pitches.”
While Cruz’s ability to hit high velocity is rare, the one adjustment that could push him into 30+ home run territory is elevating the ball more consistently. His 47.8% ground-ball rate ranked 23rd highest in MLB, and his 9.8-degree launch angle was 106th out of 129 qualified players. If he starts lifting the ball even slightly more, his home run total could explode.
Cruz has already proven he has elite power, and if he stays healthy, there’s a strong case that he will comfortably surpass 22.5 home runs in 2024. His ability to hit high velocity better than nearly anyone in baseball, paired with even a minor improvement in his launch angle, makes this Over a strong bet.
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