The 2024 NFL season just ended, but you should know that betting markets never do in this league. Football is the most popular sport in America by a mile, and no matter what time of the year it is, a huge amount of money will always be generated in the NFL. Right now, people are betting on the NFL Draft, and plenty are looking forward to next season. There has already been a flood of bets and money on who will win Super Bowl LX in San Francisco at BetMGM.
Our friend John Ewing of BetMGM shared with us some of the early betting splits on this market. They are extremely interesting to say the least, and with them, we can find out where the public and cash are going right now.
Line Movement (Open to Now)
Lions +850 to +800
Commanders +2000 to +1800
Bengals +2000 to +1800
Highest Ticket%
Lions 12.0%
Eagles 11.6%
Bills 9.0%
Highest Handle%
Eagles 17.8%
Lions 11.1%
Chiefs 9.5%
Biggest Liability
Raiders
Eagles
Panthers
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Out of all of these new updated betting splits, I think by far the most interesting is that the Las Vegas Raiders are the biggest liability at BetMGM in the early going. This is a team that hasn’t really been in contention for anything in years, and were one of the worst teams in the league in 2024. Yet, bettors are obviously finding them very appealing in the early going for next season at 150/1 odds.
So far, 2.1% of tickets and 1.5% of the handle is on the Raiders. While that is obviously far less than the Eagles at 17.8% of the handle, the 150/1 odds on Vegas make them a bigger liability for the book compared to Philly.
The first reason that comes to mind as to why people would be betting on them has got to be the presence of Tom Brady, who now owns a stake in the team. His influence is very large in the NFL community, and with him as a representative of the team, many believe he can be the guy that makes the Raiders great again. So far, very little has been done that really impacts the team in terms of roster.
However, they did just hire veteran head coach Pete Carroll to helm the ship, who is a Super Bowl champion himself. Many view Carroll as a safe pick, someone with a steady hand and proven leadership to help stabilize what has been a very tumultuous organization for many years. He’s a lot like Brady, who was always that serious and no nonsense guy that focused entirely on football.
There is certainly a lot of work that needs to be done for this team to seriously contend. First off, they need to find a quarterback, which has been a real issue for the franchise. Derek Carr was a solid option for years, but they haven’t had a real star at that position since Rich Gannon in 2002. The defense has some solid pieces like Maxx Crosby and Tre’von Moehrig, but they are still a ways away.
In all likelihood, the interest in the team is the Tom Brady effect, but I think it is a bit foolish at this point. Maybe he will help them build a contender, but we are way too early for that.
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