After avoiding serious injuries for seven of his first eight MLB seasons, southpaw pitcher Robbie Ray has been afflicted with ailments over the last two seasons and has started just eight games in that span (one for the Seattle Mariners in 2023 and seven for the San Francisco Giants in 2024).
While Ronald Acuna Jr. (+300) and Sandy Alcantara (+350) are the clear frontrunners to win the National League Comeback Player of the Year Award, Ray is a viable sleeper option at +3000. In Spring Training, Ray has proved that he’s back to 100% health with a fastball in the high 90s and wipeout strikeout stuff (nine strikeouts through his first 5.0 innings over two starts).
Through 229 MLB starts, Ray has gone 77-73 with a 3.98 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 1,548 strikeouts in 1,258.2 innings pitched. His best campaigns came in 2021 with the Blue Jays (13-7, 2.84) when he won the AL Cy Young Award and in 2017 with the Diamondbacks (15-5, 2.89), when he was an All-Star.
However, he did all that without a legitimate changeup, which is a pitch that he developed and fine-tuned this offseason. That will give him another weapon to use against right-handed hitters, who he has traditionally struggled against. He also reportedly got advice on how to throw a dynamic changeup from reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, who he exchanged info about his slider with. They’re obviously different pitchers, but Skubal’s changeup had a ridiculous 46% whiff rate last season.
When returning from a 15-month rehab stint from Tommy John surgery, Ray posted an elite 33.3% strikeout rate with 43 strikeouts in 30 ⅔ innings pitched at the end of last year. Over the course of a full season, he will have the upside to put together some huge individual numbers. If he helps lead the Giants to a playoff appearance playing in an extremely tough NL West, he should be in contention for this award. Logan Webb and Justin Verlander will join Ray in San Francisco’s starting rotation and Ray will likely slot in the No. 3 spot.
Chris Sale won last year’s award en route to his Cy Young win, but winning the Cy Young is not a requirement. Garrett Crochet, Liam Hendricks and Justin Verlander won the last three years in the AL and over the years, both starters and relievers have regularly won the Comeback Player of the Year in both leagues. I think Ray is a very logical sleeper at this price tag.
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