One of the biggest surprises of the weekend was the New Orleans Saints completely blowing out the Carolina Panthers as -4 favorites at home. While I don’t think anyone would have been shocked that they won the game, it was how dominant they looked after being very lethargic for most of the 2023 season on offense with QB Derek Carr leading the charge. How many would have guessed they would put up nearly 40 points in the game? The defense was no slouch either, picking off Panthers QB Bryce Young multiple times and just dominating the game.
The question going forward will be if New Orleans will be able to repeat this kind of performance and be a surprise team this season in the NFL.
If history is any indication, I would be hesitant to read into just one great game. In fact, the head coach of the Saints has quite a bad history when it comes to keeping the momentum after a big win.
Under Dennis Allen, the Saints are 4-10-1 ATS after a win. That 28.6% cover % is the worst mark in the NFL since the start of the 2022 season, according to Covers’ Joe Osborne. So, covering back to back games has not been his strong suit, to say the least. No one has been worse for your bankroll than Allen in the exact situation that the team finds themselves in right now.
It isn’t going to be an easy challenge in Week 2 either, as he has to take his team into Dallas to face a Cowboys team that destroyed the Browns on the road. The defense made DeShaun Watson look terrible, and perhaps he is, but it was ugly. QB Dak Prescott was efficient after getting his new deal, and against a tough Browns defense, they dominated as +2 underdogs on the road.
Dallas is a -6.5 favorite this weekend at home against Allen and the Saints, nearly expected to win by a touchdown. It will be very interesting to see where the public lands on this game, but I would be very surprised if it wasn’t on the Cowboys, as they always drive a ton of public money in the market. However, if you want to buy into this trend of how Allen can’t cover after he wins a game, perhaps that is the right side and this will be a complete blowout where Dallas wins by at least a touchdown.
According to BetQL, the Cowboys have an 81.51% chance of winning the upcoming game, with a projected final score of 27.5 to 19.5. That would be Dallas’ 17th straight regular season home win. BetMGM sets Dallas at -300 odds, equating to a 75% implied win probability.
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