The Baltimore Ravens started the season 0-2 and were on a path toward missing the playoffs for the first time in years. Since that terrible home loss to the Las Vegas Raiders, they have come back with a vengeance to get to 3-2 through five weeks, winning three straight games. Their win this past Sunday against the Cincinnati Bengals was one for the ages in a very high-scoring and exciting game. We have come to expect this from QB Lamar Jackson and company, and with the Ravens covering as a -2.5 favorite, Jackson extended his incredible trend as 3-point or fewer favorite.
While Jackson is a very controversial signal-caller, being great in the regular season but having little postseason success, there is no denying how good he has been in games that are expected to be close.
In his career, Jackson is an incredible 25-5 ATS as an underdog orfavorite of three points or less. Essentially, when he is facing good competition, he has been just unreal at covering spreads.
This weekend, it looked certain he would take a loss against the Bengals, but fate intervened for him and bettors. The game went to overtime tied at 38, but a Ravens fumble in their own territory set the Bengals up perfectly to kick a game-winning field goal. Unfortunately for them, their holder mishandled the snap, and couldn’t get the football in the right position for kicker Evan McPherson in time. He missed, which set up the Ravens with great field position. One big Derrick Henry run later, and Baltimore walked out with a 41-38 win.
The three-point win covered the closing spread of -2.5, and Jackson added to his incredible resume in these games. Was it a bit lucky? Probably, but that is just how it goes, and lady luck shined on him and Baltimore that afternoon.
Looking ahead, the Ravens find themselves as a -6.5 favorite against the Washington Commanders this coming weekend in the NFL. That spread means that his record won’t be affected no matter the outcome unless we see huge line movement, but Jackson has also historically struggled as a large favorite of over a field goal. Most recently that loss to the Raiders as a -7.5 favorite at home, a game in which they blew a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter.
Washington has been on fire, and is the talk of the NFL right now with their rookie QB Jayden Daniels. The team is 4-1 and he has been historically good for a rookie QB. They are coming off of a total blowout of the Cleveland Browns, winning 34-13 in a game that was never close. That is two blowouts in a row for them, as they crushed the Arizona Cardinals the week before.
It will be very interesting to see where the money and tickets go for this Beltway battle, as the Ravens are generally considered the better team, but the Commanders are becoming super popular in the market.
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