Thursday Night Football brings us an NFC South Division matchup between the 3-1 Buccaneers and 2-2 Falcons. The Bucs are coming off a 33-16 win over the Eagles while the Falcons needed a 58-yard field goal from Younghoe Koo with two seconds left to beat the Saints.
With such a big division game in primetime this week, let’s build a same game parlay for a big plus-money price!
Falcons ML & Kirk Cousins 200+ Passing Yards & Kyle Pitts Under 30.5 Receiving Yards (+430)
Without an offensive touchdown, the Falcons really had no business winning on Sunday against the Saints. Credit to their defense and special teams for a pick-six and turning a muffed punt into points, but the offense will need to be significantly better on Thursday night if Atlanta wants to walk away with a win.
I’m confident that will be the case with Kirk Cousins going up against a Tampa Bay defense riddled with injuries. Those same injuries didn’t matter much in the Bucs' blowout win over the Eagles last weekend, but Philly’s offense was hampered without AJ Brown, Devonta Smith and Lane Johnson.
Falcons receivers Drake London and Darnell Mooney should be able to find success against the Bucs’ secondary, which is still missing their best safety, Antoine Winfield Jr. Cornerback Zyon McCollum has played well this season, but as a whole, Tampa Bay has allowed opposing offenses the second-most completions per game with 40.7 over its last three games. Cousins will take advantage of this and be able to generate plenty of passing yards. He’s surpassed 200+ yards in all but the season opener, throwing for at least 230 in Week 2-4. Tampa Bay’s defense ranks in the bottom 10 in success rate allowed, leading to more success for the Falcons passing game.
Cousins might have a ton of passing yards on Thursday, but Kyle Pitts won’t be on the receiving end of many of those. Pitts has been underwhelming to say the least throughout the first four years of his career. I keep waiting for him to have a breakout game, but that doesn’t seem to be coming anytime soon.
Pitts only has four receptions for 105 yards through his first four games this year. Nearly half of those yards came on one 50-yard catch against the Chiefs. If you take away that one play, he would have only had nine yards in that game and 55 yards on the season. Pitts is also coming off his first career game in which he had zero catches and only three targets. His production is at an all-time low and I don’t see that changing, even against a banged up Bucs defense.
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