The excitement for the 2024-25 NBA season is building as Media Day kicks off across the league and training camps begin on October 1. With meaningful basketball action just weeks away, now is the ideal time to start considering futures bets and making bold predictions for what this season could bring. Here are three of my longshot predictions that I believe offer a ton of value.
The Lakers to Win the Pacific Division (+400)
The Lakers don’t care about winning their division. They care about winning championships. That’s been made clear over the last few years with L.A. finishing no higher than third in the division standings since 2020-21. The last time the Lakers won the division was 2019-20, the same year they won the NBA title in the bubble. Coincidence? I don’t think so.
Now, it’s important to note that I don’t think the Lakers are a championship team, but they certainly do. And for them to have postseason success, they need to finish higher in the regular season standings. In each of the last two years, they’ve secured a postseason spot via the play-in tournament. For a team with injury-prone veterans like LeBron James and Anthony Davis, having to play an extra playoff game or two isn’t ideal.
Securing one of the final playoff spots also ensures that L.A. faces one of the top two teams in the conference in the first round. In that case, it's at a disadvantage before it even plays a single game, as was the case last season against the No. 2 seed Nuggets. If the Lakers can finish with a better regular season record, they could ease their path to the conference finals.
This isn’t an easy feat because of the injuries and load management that Anthony Davis and LeBron James deal with each season. But after what we saw from James in the Olympics, it’s clear that he not only has some juice left in the tank but the competitive drive is still there.
Victor Wembanyama to Win MVP (+2000)
Have you seen the new pictures of Victor Wembanyama floating around social media? He’s gone from scrawny to strong over the summer, putting on nearly 25 pounds over the offseason. Wemby had a strong rookie season with a ton of growth from his first game to his 82nd, leading him to be named Rookie of the Year. He was also a candidate for Defensive Player of the Year and you could make the case that he should have won that too.
With new players around him and the NBA learning curve behind him, the sky's the limit for him this season. He even said at the Spurs Media Day, "Last year's expectation was to learn. This year, we expect to win."
Chris Paul signing with the Spurs in the offseason gives Wembanyma the perfect pick-and-roll partner. Paul is one of the smartest guards in the league and his veteran leadership is only going to benefit the second-year player.
Wembanyama led the league in blocks last season and averaged a double-double in points and rebounds. He also has the unique combination of size, athleticism, and versatility to improve his stats across the board, which would impact San Antonio in the win-loss column.
The Spurs' win total is set at 36.5 and their odds of making the playoffs are +375. Wembanyama has the talent to make both of those things happen and if that’s the case, his advanced stats will be worthy of being in the MVP conversation.
The Hornets to Win the Southeast Division (+3500)
Charlotte finished 26 games behind the division-winning Magic last season, which is why this is a longshot bet. The likelihood of this cashing hinges on the health of LaMelo Ball. If he can stay healthy and make it through an entire season, there is certainly value to be had here.
Ball played in just 22 games last year, averaging 23.9 points and 8.0 assists. He’s the Hornets' best player and changes the entire dynamic of their offense when he’s on the floor. Charlotte is also winning nearly 45% of games that he’s played in throughout his career.
Brandon Miller significantly improved in the back half of his rookie season and should take on a larger role this season. He’s also someone I would look at for Most Improved Player. Miles Bridges is also a reliable scorer and Mark Williams is a solid defender when healthy.
The main issue for Charlotte has been its defense. They had the second-worst Defensive Rating in the league last year and while I don’t anticipate it moving into the top 10 in that category, getting to league average would make a massive difference when it comes to wins and losses.
This is a long shot for a reason, but crazier things have happened, so at +3500, I like the value!
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