Injuries can dramatically impact NFL games, not only for teams but also for bettors. Week 4 of the NFL season brings significant injury news that savvy bettors can leverage when placing prop bets. From the absence of key offensive players like Steelers RB Jaylen Warren to the impact of Raiders WR Davante Adams being sidelined, understanding how these injuries affect betting lines gives you an edge. In this article, we’ll break down the most important injury updates and how you can capitalize on them with smart prop bets. Let’s dive into the best opportunities for Week 4.
Steelers Jaylen Warren (Knee) & Colts DE Kwity Paye (Quad) OUT
I wrote about how much I love Najee Harris this week in my player prop picks article, not only because his backup Warren is out, but because this Colts defense has surrendered an NFL-owrst 136.33 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. Harris has gotten 20, 17 and 18 carries for 70, 69 and 70 rushing yards, but should have a great chance to break out in this game with Paye out and DeForest Buckner on the IR. This defensive line is terrible at stopping the run and the Steelers’ run-heavy offensive attack should crush them. Cordarrelle Patterson may steal a few carries, but this should be Harris’ big week to prove he can be a three-down back if called upon.
Best Bets: Najee Harris Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-113, FanDuel) & Over 17.5 Rush Attempts (-109, BetRivers) & Over 11.5 Receiving Yards (-113, FanDuel) & ATTD (+110, BetMGM/FanDuel)
Raiders WR Davante Adams (Hamstring) OUT vs. Browns
Whether or not this is a real hamstring injury is up in the air, but nonetheless, Gardner Minshew is going to be without his star wideout against the Browns this week. For betting, fantasy and DFS purposes, this is a dream since we know exactly where most of Minshew’s targets are going to go: Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers. Bowers has racked up 21 targets and Meyers has received 17 targets through the first three weeks, which rank second and third behind Adams’ 27, but could realistically both see double-digit targets this week.
Vegas may elect to employ some more two-TE sets this week too, so keep an eye on Michael Mayer as well; he’s played 104 snaps this season, which is in the same ballpark as Bowers’ 126.
Best Bets: Brock Bowers Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-130, BetRivers) & Over 5.5 Receptions (+100, BetMGM), Jakobi Meyers Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-114, FanDuel) & Over 3.5 Receptions (+108, FanDuel), Michael Mayer ATTD (+650, BetMGM)
Cardinals TE Trey McBride (Concussion) OUT vs. Commanders
After playing 85%, 83% and 85% of the snaps in the first three weeks of the year, McBride is going to miss the Week 4 matchup against the Commanders and will leave Elijah Higgins and Tip Reiman (who?) to split the snaps at his position. With that being said, I think we’re going to see Kyler Murray gravitate to not only Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson more than usual, but also get Greg Dortch involved after he saw a season-high 66% of the snaps last week. The guy I love most, however, is James Conner. Coming off a season-high 75% snap count, he has pass-catching upside and has gotten 10 red zone touches compared to 11 from all of his other teammates combined.
Best Bets: Marvin Harrison Jr. Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-130, BetMGM), Michael Wilson Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-117, BetRivers), Greg Dortch Over 3.5 Receptions (-115, BetRivers), James Conner Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (-115, BetRivers) & ATTD (-130, DraftKings/FanDuel)
Commanders RB Austin Ekeler (Concussion) OUT at Cardinals
The running back tandem was working well for the Commanders, but now this will be the Brian Robinson show with a dose of Jeremy McNichols. Robinson played a season-high 76% of the snaps in last week’s win over the Bengals and will likely get a chance to prove he’s a three-down back with Ekeler on the sidelines. With that being said, I fully expect Jayden Daniels to make things happen with his legs more than usual as well, likely receiving some more designed runs. I’m going to be higher than usual on Robinson and also am going to go over Daniels’ rushing yards.
Best Bets: Brian Robinson Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-115, Caesars) & Over 15.5 Rush Attempts (-128, Caesars), Jayden Daniels Over 46.5 Rushing Yards (-112, BetRivers) & Over 9.5 Rush Attempts (-133, Caesars)
Bengals DL Sheldon Rankins (Hamstring) & DL B.J. Hill (Hamstring) OUT at Panthers
Speaking of Daniels, he and his teammates ran all over the Bengals on Monday Night Football and things are going to get scary for Cincinnati against the Panthers. Not only is defensive lineman Sheldon Rankins out, but B.J. Hill is also doubtful, both with hamstring issues. This all of a sudden becomes a dream spot for Chuba Hubbard, who will not only benefit from the threat that Andy Dalton poses under center (did I really just type that?), but also what should be a porous defensive front.
Best Bets: Chuba Hubbard Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-113, FanDuel) & ATTD (+100, Caesars/FanDuel)
Dolphins QB’s Tua Tagovailoa & Skylar Thompson OUT vs. Titans
Tyler Huntley is in a prime position to shine as the Dolphins' starting quarterback this week against the Titans. With a Pro Bowl nod in 2022 and experience stepping in for Lamar Jackson, Huntley brings versatility and playmaking ability to Miami’s offense. His dual-threat capability adds a dynamic layer to an offense that already boasts explosive weapons like Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and De’Von Achane. Huntley's ability to extend plays with his legs should prove invaluable, especially against a Tennessee defense that recently allowed Green Bay's backup Malik Willis to rack up 202 passing yards, 73 rushing yards, and two total touchdowns. With a struggling Titans secondary and Huntley's mobility, expect him to surpass passing and rushing prop bets, making him a key player for Miami this week. Add in the narrative that he grew up in South Florida cheering on the Dolphins as a kid and I really like his outlook.
Best Bets: Tyler Huntley Over 161.5 Passing Yards (-114, FanDuel), Over 25.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel) and Over 30.5 Yards Longest Completion (-110, BetMGM).
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