The Yankees took Game 1 yesterday in a low-scoring affair, winning 5-2 and barely covering the under 7.5. LHP Carlos Rodon shut down the Cleveland lineup, pitching six innings of one run ball with nine strikeouts. This was certainly not out of the realm of possibilities for him, as Rodon is one of those pitchers that is very streaky, and can be hard to handicap from one start to the next. I expected the Guardians to try and let RHP Alex Cobb stay out there as long as they could, which unfortunately for them, was less than three full innings. He allowed five hits, three runs, and his command was atrocious allowing three walks.
Cleveland will throw their “ace” pitcher today in RHP Tanner Bibee, hoping for a better performance so they can allow their bullpen more rest. He finished with a 3.80 xERA and 3.72 xFIP across 173.2 innings during the regular season, which are solid numbers for sure, but not ace material. He didn’t pitch against New York this season at all, and only saw them once in 2023, so both he and this lineup will be unfamiliar with each other.
As we know, the Yankees owned the best offense in baseball against right-handed pitching in the regular season, finishing with a 120 wRC+ as a lineup. I’ve noticed in his last two postseason starts that he has been pitching more to weak contact than he did previously, throwing double-digit sinker balls in both games. To put it into perspective, he threw a total of nine sinkers the entire regular season. Taking his under strikeouts could be a good look today, as he doesn’t want to give up the long ball to the Yankees.
On the other side, veteran RHP Gerrit Cole will get the ball for New York. He finished the regular season with a 3.59 xERA and 3.99 xFIP, which are his worst numbers since 2016. Granted, he missed a lot of the season with injury, but he still got 95 innings of work in. In fact, his pitching effectiveness has declined for three straight seasons, dropping from a 2.77 xFIP in 2022, to 3.60 in 2023, to now 3.99. His velocity is also down a tick each season as well. He’s no longer that dominant starter you think of, but more so a solid arm that can get some good innings. In fact, I’d rate him and Bibee nearly the same.
The good news for Cole is that he gets the Guardians in their weaker split, as they owned just a 95 wRC+ as a lineup in the regular season. Still, I think taking Cole’s under 5.5 strikeouts is also a good play. His strikeout rate this season was its lowest since 2017 at 25.7%.
You’re probably tired of hearing this, but Cleveland has the edge in the bullpen as they usually do. The Guardians ranked 2nd in xFIP as a unit during the regular season and have one of the most steady set of arms when their starter leaves the game. The Yankees ranked 11th in xFIP, which isn’t bad, but not close to Cleveland.
The Guardians are also the better defensive team, ranking second in DRS and ninth in OAA, compared to New York being ranked 10th in both categories. On the basepaths, the Yankees are one of the worst teams in baseball, ranking 30th in BsR.
In terms of bets, I like the Guardians at +146. The Yankees are at home and should be the favorites, no doubt, but I think this number should be a bit closer. Plus, Cleveland will have at least some sense of desperation to get a win on the road. The total is lined just about right, sitting at 7.5 again. I’d be inclined to bet the under at that number with temperatures being in the low 50s at first pitch, but there isn’t a substantial advantage. I talked about the two strikeout props I looked at, and why I would play them. Let’s hope we get a good game today!
Best Bets: Guardians ML (+146), Cole Under 5.5 Ks (-125), Bibee Under 4.5 Ks (+105)
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