When the Chicago Bears selected QB Caleb Williams out of USC with the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, they did something that 27 other teams have done since 1970. Every one of those teams was in search of the franchise QB that would hopefully turn their fortunes around and bring them success.
Some of those signal-callers panned out and became great leaders and players, taking their team to the Super Bowl and competing on a yearly basis. Others, not so much. The book of Williams is yet to be written, but his first task will be defeating the Tennessee Titans on Sunday as a 4-point favorite.
In order to do that, he is going to have to accomplish something that only four of his fellow 27 first overall QB’s have done since 1970: win the game. As reported by BetMGM’s John Ewing, first overall QB picks have gone a combined 4-22-1 straight up since that year in their first start, and have been nearly as bad against the spread with a poor 7-20 ATS record.
Now, I would imagine not many of those guys were favorites in their first game, as typically they are drafted by the team that was the worst in football the year before. Williams is a special case, as he joins a Bears team that won seven games in 2023 and is stacked with offensive talent around the first year starter.
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He’ll start off with two Pro-Bowl caliber receivers in D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen, as well as a fellow Top 10 pick in the 2024 Draft, Rome Odunze out of Washington. He has Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett at the tight end position, and while they aren’t superstars, they have proven to be reliable pass catchers. D’Andre Swift is a great pass-catching back, and an underrated runner that eclipsed 1,000 yards last year.
The Bears should have one of the best defenses in the NFL this season, with a lockdown secondary and veteran linebackers. Their biggest question mark is pass-rusher, but they have Montez Sweat to bring the heat, and will need someone else to step up on the other side of him.
Indeed, Williams is on one of the best teams a first overall QB has ever been a part of, but can he deviate from this trend? The Bears are getting all the public money at sportsbooks, with the Titans being seen as inferior, plus the public loves betting on superstar rookies in their first start. Personally, I think he becomes another victim of this trend. We’ll see this weekend at kickoff.
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