Thursday Night Football is upon us, and we have ourselves a pretty disgusting matchup here tonight between the Denver Broncos and the New Orleans Saints. Both teams are coming off a loss and have a ton of injuries that will likely affect this game. You can always count on the Thursday game to usually be pretty terrible, although I will admit last week, we got a good showcase with the 49ers and Seahawks. Two rookies battling it out with lots of injuries doesn’t seem like it will be as invigorating.
Denver just lost to the Chargers at home last weekend 23-16, a game in which they looked dreadful on offense pretty much the entire time. They got into an early hole, but to their credit, they at least made the final score respectable with some garbage time scoring. New Orleans actually stayed competitive with the Buccaneers last weekend for the first half, but got ripped in the second half in an eventual blowout loss. Rookie Spencer Rattler made his first start for the injured Derek Carr, and while he wasn’t terrible, he also looked like a rookie signal-caller a lot.
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The numbers over at BetMGM right now are just about what you might suspect them to be. Denver is a -3 favorite on the road, with the total being extremely low at 37.5 in most places. According to our friend John Ewing, who is a data and PR guy at BetMGM, a majority of bettors are backing Denver at a short number. In fact, at the time of this writing, 66 percent of the bets and 79 percent of the cash in on the Broncos to cover the spread tonight. Those are some pretty lopsided figures, so the sportsbook is probably going to want New Orleans to keep this one close.
In terms of the total, it has been much more even. A complete split at 50/50 on total tickets, while the money is slightly favoring the under at 59 percent of cash.
To me, this seems like a game that is going to be a rock fight between two rookie QBs and offenses that aren’t that good. The Saints will be without their top two wide receivers in Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, and missing two offensive lineman as well. I don’t see them putting up a lot of points in this one. I think Denver will have a more conservative approach here. The Saints have the 8th-best defense against the pass, but 22nd against the run. I think they will try to run the ball a lot, which will chew clock to keep the ball out of Bo Nix’s hands for the most part.
In a game I think will be lower-scoring, I think getting the three points with New Orleans could be valuable here; plus, the books will likely be on that side. I’d look at the first half under 19.5, as I think if any scoring will be done, it will be in the second half. Both teams will be cautious out of the gate and stick to the game plan. Even though I am backing the Saints here, I think there is some value on Rattler to throw an interception at -128. He threw two in his first start last week, and now will be without two starting receivers and offensive lineman.
Best Bets: Saints +3 (-110), Under 19.5 1H (-120), Rattler INT (-128)
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