With a two-week hiatus until the Super Bowl, now is the perfect time to start paying attention to college basketball. The final week of January opens Monday night with several games from power conferences, including games involving some top-5 teams. Check out picks for some of the biggest games on Monday’s college basketball schedule.
Penn State (13-7) at #21 Michigan (14-5)
On paper, Michigan looks like the superior team, as the Wolverines are 6-2 in Big Ten play. But they were lifeless in a blowout loss to Purdue over the weekend. Michigan also has a recent loss to Minnesota and a too-close-for-comfort win over Northwestern. It’s fair to wonder if the Wolverines have become too reliant on big men Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf and have enough quality in the backcourt to be an elite team. Meanwhile, Penn State’s 3-6 record in conference play is a little misleading. The Nittany Lions have won four straight games against the spread. They are 1-3 SU during that stretch, losing three games by a total of seven points. Guard play isn't an issue with Ace Baldwin, who averages eight assists per game. Penn State is also less turnover prone than Michigan but still averages over 80 points per game, so look for the Nittany Lions to keep this game close.
Pick: Penn State +8.5
NC State (9-10) at #2 Duke (17-2)
The Blue Devils were tested over the weekend, beating Wake Forest on the road to stay unbeaten in ACC play. Most of Duke’s other ACC wins have come comfortably, beating Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, SMU, Pitt, Miami, and Pitt by at least 23 points. There’s not a lot to suggest that the Wolfpack can avoid being added to that list. NC State is 1-6 straight up and 1-6 against the spread over its last seven games. To be fair, the Wolfpack has played a lot of close games and rarely been blown out. But they also haven’t played many teams with Duke’s talent. After a tough game against Wake Forest on Saturday, the Blue Devils won’t take NC State lightly, allowing them to cover a big spread.
Pick: Duke -21.5
UCLA (14-6) at USC (12-7)
Both teams should be thrilled that they don’t have to travel to the Midwest to play a conference game. The Bruins will also be happy about their three-game winning streak, especially since it helped put a four-game losing streak behind them. The caveat is that leading scorer Tyler Bilodeau, who suffered an ankle injury in Friday's win over Washington. Despite the Bruins winning that game, UCLA’s lack of scoring depth could quickly become a problem. Keep in mind that the Trojans have also played better lately, winning three of their last four games, including road wins over Illinois and Nebraska. Without Bilodeau, the Bruins will lose their edge in the frontcourt, allowing USC’s superior guard play to lead the Trojans to a win.
Pick: USC ML
#3 Iowa State (17-2) vs Arizona (13-6)
The Cyclones stumbled in a tough road game against West Virginia earlier this month and face another road test against Arizona on Monday. Of course, Iowa State is 13-6 against the spread this season. That’s one of the best ATS records in the country, making the Cyclones a good team to back in games with a tight spread. On the other hand, Arizona has an identical 7-1 conference record thus far, including a home win over Baylor. However, leading scorer Caleb Love has been held to 10 points or less in three of his last four games. Despite beating Baylor with Love scoring just eight points, knocking off Iowa State will be tough if Arizona’s best player doesn’t rise to the occasion. Meanwhile, the Cyclones have had no problem getting big performances out of the tandem of Curtis Jones and Keshon Gilbert in recent games, making Iowa State the more reliable team in this matchup despite being a slight road underdog.
Pick: Iowa State ML
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