As the Eagles prepare to host the Commanders on Thursday Night Football, there’s value to be found in key player props. With the Eagles trending toward a run-heavy approach, Jalen Hurts’ passing volume is in focus, while A.J. Brown’s big-play potential shines in a favorable matchup. On the other side, Commanders WR Terry McLaurin faces a challenging assignment against standout rookie cornerback Quinyon Mitchell, making his receiving yard line a compelling under play. Let’s dive into the best prop picks for this NFC East showdown.
Eagles QB Jalen Hurts Under 29.5 Pass Attempts (-120, DraftKings)
After going over this mark in each of Philadelphia’s first four games (Eagles went 2-2), Hurts has stayed under it in each of the last five contests (Eagles went 5-0). Not only that, but he’s gone way below the mark with 25, 14, 20, 24 and 20 pass attempts in that span while the team fully committed to leaning on Saquon Barkley and the run game. I don’t anticipate that mindset changing in this matchup against Washington, who has allowed 4.95 yards per carry to running backs (4th-most in NFL). Opposing quarterbacks have attempted an NFL-low 26.9 passes per game against the Commanders this season, which makes me love the under even more. DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert are banged up as well and if they’re limited or can’t suit up, that increases the likelihood of a commitment to the running game even more. This is my favorite prop pick for this game by a huge margin and I think this is a clear misprice.
Eagles WR A.J. Brown Over 27.5 Yards Longest Reception (-118, FanDuel)
Brown has gone over this mark in five of his six games played this season, with game-by-game long receptions of 67, 40, 41, 29, 20 and 44. As noted above, I don’t think the volume will be there from Hurts as a passer, but Brown has seen 32.5% of his team’s air yards with a 14.6 aDOT, both of which lead the Eagles. When Hurts does throw the football, there’s a solid chance he’s going to be looking downfield to his big-play wideout. If Smith and/or Goedert are out, it would make this even more valuable.
Commanders WR Terry McLaurin Under 62.5 Receiving Yards (-115, BetMGM)
McLaurin ranks 3rd in the entire NFL in air yards (966) and has averaged 20.6 air yards per reception. As one of just two wideouts in the league with four catches of 50-plus yards (along with Ja’Marr Chase), McLaurin has the proven big-play ability to get over this number with just one catch, but has a brutal matchup against rookie CB Quinyon Mitchell, who is playing at an All-Pro level already. Here’s what Mitchell has held opposing wideouts to in coverage: Christian Watson (one catch, six yards), Drake London (one catch, five yards), Chris Olave (two catches, 23 yards), Mike Evans (two catches, 19 yards), Amari Cooper (one catch, 10 yards), Malik Nabers (one catch, nine yards) and Ja’Marr Chase (two catches, 19 yards). Per PFF, dating back to college, Mitchell has not allowed more than 23 yards in coverage in his last 23 games.
Most Bet (Tickets) Player Props at BetMGM
1. Jalen Hurts under 9.5 rushing attempts (+100)
2. Terry McLaurin under 62.5 receiving yards (-115)
3. A.J. Brown over 79.5 receiving yards (-120)
4. Saquon Barkley over 94.5 rushing yards (-115)
5. Kenneth Gainwell over 13.5 rushing yards (-125)
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