On Tuesday, news broke that the New England Patriots were going to make the switch from veteran Jacoby Brissett to rookie Drake Maye at quarterback heading into their Week 6 home matchup against the Houston Texans.
In five starts, Brissett completed 58.5% of his passes for just 139.2 passing yards per game with two touchdowns and an interception. Playing behind a horrendous offensive line, he was also sacked 17 times (4th-most in the NFL) and knocked down 27 times (2nd-most). Brissett also averaged just 2.9 air yards per attempt, a product of an offense that is lacking legitimate NFL-caliber playmakers who can get separation downfield and create explosive plays.
The cumulative effect was gross: a 1-4 record and an offense that generated 12.4 points per game (2nd-worst in NFL).
Maye made his NFL debut off the bench against the Jets back in Week 3 and went 4-for-8 for 22 yards while rushing twice for 12 yards as well. He was sacked twice, too. But, New England felt it was time to make the inevitable switch to who they hope will be their next franchise QB.
Against the Texans, the No. 3 overall pick is going to be expected to be an upgrade over Brissett, but I’m very skeptical of his upside as a passer due to the fact that no other skill position players are going to be replaced. He’s going to be “protected” by a terrible offensive line and has tight end Hunter Henry (16 receptions on 25 targets for 180 yards) and Demario Douglas (18 receptions on 24 targets for 153 yards) as his top targets. Per Next Gen Stats, rookie WR Ja’Lynn Polk has gained an average of 1.8 yards of separation, lowest among all qualified wide receivers.
As we saw during Mac Jones’ tenure, if receivers are unable to get open, the passing game has no chance to succeed. Unfortunately for the Patriots, little has been done to radically upgrade offensive skill positions over the last few seasons.
Due to New England’s defensive strengths, Brissett was only asked to be a game manager and facilitate the running game, as Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson have taken on a big workload. They’ve averaged 4.6 and 5.9 yards, respectively, but this has been an inept passing offense in an NFL that requires winning teams to be able to throw the ball downfield. That passing offense has also limited their rushing upside, since the two work hand-in-hand and keep defenses guessing in healthy situations.
I don’t see Maye’s upside as a passer, but the one factor I’m looking to exploit in his first few starts is his rushing ability. He’s deceptively fast and ran for 1,209 yards with 16 touchdowns in 30 games played at North Carolina. (Keep in mind that sacks count as negative rushing yards in college football, too.) Due to the presumed pressure that he’ll face, he will likely be required to scramble quite a bit and I wouldn’t be shocked if he will have some designed runs as well.
I’ll take the over on his rushing yards and will also throw some on him to score a touchdown with his legs (priced between +430 and +460 across the industry). But, regardless of that, I think this is going to be a brutal rest of the year for New England and will likely continue to be a mess unless they can land high-end free agent help or use high draft picks on wideouts.
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