The New Orleans Saints' season took a concerning turn after not only suffering their third consecutive loss on Sunday but also losing starting quarterback Derek Carr for an extended period due to an oblique injury. Carr went down in the fourth quarter of the Saints' 26-13 defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football. Although the timeline for his return is uncertain, early reports suggest that Carr could miss several games. This loss dropped New Orleans to third place in the NFC South at 2-3, and with a divisional showdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers looming, another loss could further damper their season.
Backup quarterback Jake Haener stepped in for Carr but struggled, completing just 2-of-7 passes for 17 yards. Rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler is slated to start in Week 6, though. Regardless of who is under center, there are ways to approach betting on Saints games moving forward.
Instead of fading New Orleans outright, I’m backing Tampa Bay’s offense to have a big game on Sunday. Rattler will likely struggle against Todd Bowles’ aggressive defense. The Buccaneers will blitz frequently and should have success against a Saints offensive line that is severely banged up, with injuries to LG Lucas Patrick, C Connor McGovern, RG Landon Young, and RT Trevor Penning.
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), New Orleans' offensive line allowed a league-high 23 pressures in Week 5 and ranks last in the NFL in pass-block efficiency. Heading into Week 6, their line is graded as the third worst overall, a troubling sign as they prepare to face a blitz-heavy Bucs defense.
Given these offensive line struggles and the inexperience at quarterback, it's hard to envision the Saints sustaining drives against a Tampa Bay defense that’s regaining health. Expect multiple three-and-outs, giving Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield a few extra offensive opportunities and the ability to dominate time of possession.
Mayfield has been thriving under new offensive coordinator Liam Coen. Despite Tampa's recent loss to Atlanta, Mayfield was efficient, throwing for 180 yards and three touchdowns while completing all but five passes. He’s also been careful with the ball, tossing just two interceptions this season. The Buccaneers offense has put up 30 or more points in three of their five games and ranks 7th in the NFL in EPA per play.
With the Saints coming off a short week and the Buccaneers enjoying extra rest from a mini-bye, expect Mayfield and the Bucs offense to stay hot. Tampa Bay should have no trouble surpassing their team total of 22.5 points in Sunday’s matchup.
Get up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets at BetMGM! All you need to do is CLICK HERE, sign up for a new account, make your first deposit and bet! Don’t miss out!
Related
