If it’s possible for an award race to be wrapped up after just four weeks, it would be the Offensive Rookie of the Year. Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels has been far and away the best rookie so far, and the market reflects that.
Daniels opened at +900 before the season and dropped to +170 prior to Week 4. After completing 86.7% of his passes for 233 yards in Washington’s 42-14 road win over the Cardinals last weekend, Daniels now sits atop the odds board at -150 on BetMGM. He’s currently receiving 15.3% of the tickets and 20.6% of the handle.
The rookie QB has been impressive both in the pocket, making smart reads, and as a dual threat with his legs. He’s posted a passer rating of 93.0 or higher in all four games, highlighted by a 141.7 rating in Week 3. Daniels has not only thrown three passing touchdowns but also rushed for four.
The only criticism so far is that the Commanders haven’t faced the toughest defenses. In the past two weeks, Washington has played Arizona and Cincinnati, both of whom have Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades that rank in the bottom half of the league. The Commanders will face Cleveland, Chicago, and Pittsburgh in the coming weeks, and if Daniels can continue his stellar play against those defenses, he might just lock up the award.
Malik Nabers is the only other player with odds below +700. He’s currently at +375 to win OROY after catching 12 passes for 115 yards in Week 4 against the Cowboys. On the season, Nabers leads the league with 35 catches for 386 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 11.0 yards per reception.
Unfortunately, the Giants' rookie receiver suffered a concussion against Dallas and hasn’t practiced this week. It’s unclear whether he’ll be cleared to play on Sunday against the Seahawks, but any missed time could hurt his chances in the race.
Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr. opened as the top two favorites on the OROY board, with Williams at +300 and Harrison Jr. at +500. After four weeks, they are tied for third at +700. Both have been solid but have yet to make the same impact for their teams as Daniels and Nabers.
Those who bet on Bo Nix to win the award are likely feeling pretty silly, especially after he threw for just 60 yards in Week 4 against the Jets. Nix is leading in both tickets (21.7%) and handle (20.7%) and is BetMGM’s biggest liability, but he currently sits at +2000. Unless Nix drastically improves—and I mean drastically—there’s no chance he wins. He’s thrown just one passing touchdown this season and has a QBR of 49.5 through four weeks.
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