Coming into the 2024 NFL season, one of the most popular bets in the entire awards market was Los Angeles Chargers new head coach Jim Harbaugh to win the Coach of the Year award. This wasn’t surprising to see him be so popular, as he was coming off of a National Championship victory with the Michigan Wolverines in college football, and he formerly brought the San Francisco 49ers to the Super Bowl back in 2012. He was a veteran head coach that has had success everywhere he has gone, so backing him in his first season back in the pros since 2013 was an obvious public play.
Over at BetMGM, Harbaugh was +900 last week to win the award, and has always been one of the bigger favorites on the oddsboard since the start of the season. However, the season hasn’t exactly been all roses for the high-profile head coach. The Chargers are 2-2 after their first four games of the season, and they have struggled offensively, despite having a veteran star quarterback in Justin Herbert.
Statistically, Herbert is having one of the worst seasons of his career so far through four games. He has thrown for just 578 yards with five touchdowns, to one interception. While those numbers aren’t exactly poor, they also are not what we have come to expect from him over the years. His 41.4 QBR is 27th among all qualified QBs, ranking as a bottom five signal-caller to this point.
The good news for the Chargers is that Harbaugh seems to have done wonders for their defense, which ranks as a top five unit in the NFL after four weeks. This is compared to being one of the worst in football just last season, so the drastic turnaround in just a single season is pretty incredible.
As with all the awards in the NFL, winning matters maybe a lot more than it should. The Chargers are 2-2, and after their most recent loss to the Kansas City Chiefs this past weekend, Harbaugh’s odds have dropped to +1400 to win the Coach of the Year award. As you might expect, Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell is the current favorite to win the award. His team is 4-0 to start the year when they weren’t expected to be good. Andy Reid’s Chiefs are also 4-0, but he is +3500, because everyone expected Kansas City to be fantastic.
In order for Harbaugh to win the award, he will likely have to make the playoffs this season and win eight or nine games with Los Angeles. That is certainly possible, but so far out of the gate, things have not been immediately good. There is still plenty of time to fix the offense, and if they are able to get things going on that side of the ball, look out.
Right now, 9.4 percent of the tickets and 10.6 percent of the total handle on this market is on Harbaugh to win the award.
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