The San Francisco 49ers have placed star running back Christian McCaffrey on injured reserve due to calf soreness and Achilles tendinitis, sidelining him for at least four games. McCaffrey's absence significantly impacts both the team and the betting market, as the 49ers prepare to face the Minnesota Vikings this Sunday. The 49ers opened as -7 favorites, but with McCaffrey’s status confirmed, the line has shifted to -4.5.
McCaffrey’s injury has been a concern since early August, and despite efforts to ease him back into practice, his Achilles did not respond well. This leaves San Francisco without their top playmaker until at least October 10, when he is eligible to return for a Thursday Night Football matchup against the Seattle Seahawks, though his return is far from certain.
In McCaffrey's absence, second-year running back Jordan Mason will take over as the primary ball carrier, fresh off a career-best performance in Week 1 against the New York Jets. Mason carried the ball 28 times for 147 yards and a touchdown in that one, the most rushing attempts by a 49ers player since head coach Kyle Shanahan took over in 2017. With Mason’s impressive start and Shanahan’s run-heavy offensive system, bettors are eyeing him for another big game against the Vikings. His anytime touchdown prop currently ranges from -150 to -175, indicating that sportsbooks expect him to find the end zone.
Deebo Samuel is also expected to see additional rushing attempts in a hybrid role, and other options include rookie Isaac Guerendo, Patrick Taylor Jr., and practice squad back Ke’Shawn Vaughn. However, Mason is clearly the focal point for bettors this week.
The line movement from -7 to -4.5 reflects McCaffrey's impact on the team, but with the 49ers’ success in Week 1 without him, many bettors still have confidence in Shanahan’s system and Mason’s abilities. With the Vikings coming off a dominant 28-6 win over the New York Giants, this matchup remains a closely watched one for NFL bettors.
As you can read about in my weekly Player Prop Targets article, I am targeting over 73.5 rushing yards for Mason in particular.
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