Monday Night Football in Week 1 features a highly anticipated matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and the New York Jets, with plenty of storylines to keep bettors intrigued. The 49ers, who dealt with offseason drama surrounding the contracts of Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk and a health scare for rookie shooting victim Ricky Pearsall, are favored by -5.5 points at DraftKings. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers is set to make his first appearance as the Jets' quarterback after recovering from Achilles injury. Below are the top five bets for this primetime matchup.
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Bet #1: Jets +5.5 at 49ers (-105, DraftKings)
Underdogs have a strong track record on Monday Night Football, going 29-12-1 against the spread since 1998. With the Jets coming into this game as 5.5-point underdogs, this looks like a favorable spot for bettors. San Francisco has dealt with internal issues during the offseason, including contract disputes and injuries, as mentioned above. Additionally, Brock Purdy’s 2023 success was largely tied to the 49ers’ star-studded supporting cast, and there are concerns about his ability to perform without a fully healthy (or cohesive) roster. On the other hand, the Jets boast a top-tier defense, a healthy Aaron Rodgers, and a rejuvenated Breece Hall, making this bet a solid choice. I would also consider betting New York’s moneyline depending on the price you can get.
Bet #2: Aaron Rodgers Over 22.5 Completions (+105, BetMGM)
Rodgers will be facing a fierce 49ers defense, but his track record against elite defenses suggests that he thrives under pressure at an elite level with short and intermediate passes. With receivers like Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, and elite pass-catching RB Breece Hall out of the backfield, Rodgers is poised to dink and dunk his way to this mark. This was down in the 20.5 and 21.5 range in past weeks, but I’m still comfortable with this number, especially getting plus-money on it over at BetMGM.
Bet #3: Breece Hall Anytime Touchdown (+125, BetMGM)
Hall’s ability to score from anywhere on the field makes him a prime candidate for an anytime touchdown. With Rodgers under center, Hall should get more opportunities in the passing game, especially in the red zone. He ranked third among running backs in yards per route run in 2023, and that number is expected to rise with competent QB play. Look for Hall to capitalize and he’s safe regardless of game script. If the game is close, he can beat you as a runner or receiver. If the Jets are up, they’ll use him to ground and pound the football. If the Jets are down, they’ll use him as an asset in the passing game. I love this option.
Bet #4: Christian McCaffrey Anytime Touchdown (-175, FanDuel)
McCaffrey scored a touchdown in 16 of 19 games last season, and despite reports of a nagging preseason injury, he remains one of the most dangerous offensive weapons in the league. The Jets' defense is formidable, but the 49ers use McCaffrey creatively in both the running and passing games, giving him plenty of chances to find the end zone. This price may seem steep, but it’s still a strong bet for those looking for a safer option. This will be a popular inclusion in SGP’s, but I’ll label this as good chalk to eat.
Bet #5: Garrett Wilson Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-113, FanDuel)
Wilson is set to thrive with Aaron Rodgers as his quarterback. Last season, Wilson posted 1,042 receiving yards despite inconsistent quarterback play by Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemien and Tim Boyle (sorry if anyone gets triggered by reading those names). Now, as the clear No. 1 option in New York’s offense, he’s expected to be targeted frequently. The 49ers struggled against wide receivers in 2023, and Wilson should have ample opportunity to clear 68.5 receiving yards. This prop could even be teased up to 100+ yards for added value at +265 odds.