Tuesday night’s NBA slate offers plenty of betting opportunities, especially with key matchups like Tyrese Maxey leading the short-handed 76ers and Damian Lillard facing his former team in Portland. We've analyzed the numbers and trends to bring you the best player prop picks for January 28. From scoring outbursts to assist totals, here are the props worth betting on tonight.
76ers PG Tyrese Maxey Over 29.5 Points vs. Lakers (-102, FanDuel)
In 195 minutes with Joel Embiid, Paul George, Jared McCain, Andre Drummond and Caleb Martin off the floor, Maxey has seen a 6.42% usage bump to an elite 37.26%. Over his last 10 games overall, he’s gone over the 30-point mark five times, but has been remarkably consistent, never dipping below 28 points once in that span. He will definitely be the focal point as Philadelphia’s go-to scorer, has played 40-plus minutes in 10 of his last 17 starts and has also taken 23 or more shots in 10 of those contests, including a high of 32 against the Knicks a couple weeks ago. It’s hard to find this kind of clear volume nowadays and that’s exactly what we’re getting from Maxey in this matchup.
Bucks PG Damian Lillard Over 26.5 Points vs. Trail Blazers (-120, DraftKings)
First of all, Lillard has had triple-doubles in two of his last three games, yet has +6000 odds to record another one in Portland against his old team tonight. Just saying. Very quietly, Dame has been balling out lately, averaging 26.1 points per game on 47.7% shooting (41.4% from three) in the month of January. The Blazers have allowed the 6th-most points per game to opposing point guards this season and Milwaukee has been surging lately, improving their record to 26-18 on the year. It appears as though Lillard is very comfortable in Doc Rivers’ offensive system and it’s also worth noting that he has accumulated 9.8 points per game as a pick-and-roll ball-handler (7th-most in NBA) while Portland has struggled defending the pick-and-roll, allowing their ball-handling opponents to shoot 46.5% (3rd-highest).
Hawks PG Trae Young Under 10.5 Assists vs. Rockets (-130, DraftKings)
Returning from an absence in yesterday’s game, Young might not be back at 100 percent and will have a brutal matchup against the Rockets, who have allowed only one player (Scoot Henderson oddly enough) to go over this 10.5-assist number all season long. Houston has allowed just 7.53 assists per game to opposing point guards this season, 2nd-lowest in the NBA, and is sporting the 4th-best Defensive Rating in the Association.
Warriors PG Stephen Curry Over 7.5 Assists vs. Jazz (+115, BetRivers)
Curry’s production has dropped off in recent games, which has coincided with the absence of Draymond Green, who has been out with an injury. However, Curry is coming off a nine-assist performance against the Lakers, had 12 a few games ago against the Kings and will need to facilitate and create offense against the Jazz tonight. Utah has allowed 10.48 assists per game to opposing point guards (2nd-most in the NBA) and over the last three gameswith Green out, Curry has averaged 8.0 dimes on 14.5 potential helpers. He shouldn’t have an issue creating offense against Utah, who owns the 2nd-worst Defensive Rating in the NBA behind the Wizards.
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