Welcome back everyone. It’s Big Will Bets and it’s finally time to jump into the college basketball season. The college football season was great, but all good things come to an end and we need to find a new good thing. I love March and every year I convince myself that I am going to win every bet I place. Spoiler alert: I never win every bet. But, this year I am already starting to believe that I can win every bet again because I have a secret weapon. That weapon does need some testing, and February is the perfect time to test out that secret weapon to work out the bugs. What is my secret weapon, you ask? Let’s jump into the picks and maybe you can figure it out.
Showdown at High Noon: #5 Florida (18-2) at #8 Tennessee (17-4)
People who like to sound smarter than they actually are always say that styles make fights (me), and in this matchup we have two very different styles of fighting. Florida wants to play a quicker game of basketball, currently averaging 69 (nice) offensive possessions per 40 minutes. That puts them 81st in the country. Tennessee, on the other hand, wants to play slow. They average 63.6 possessions per 40 minutes and they are perfectly fine with this style of game play. The Volunteers trust their defense to come up with big stops, and their higher quality offense looks will turn into enough points to win.
This is going to be a great matchup for most casual college basketball fans to dive into as they get ready for the stretch run of the season. I typically lean towards the better defensive team in these close matchups and while both teams play good defense, Tennessee has the slight defensive edge. Couple that with the fact that this game is in Knoxville, and I think we have our answer as to who wins this game. Look for Tennessee to dictate tempo, to lock Florida down defensively, and to win this top 10 matchup.
Tennessee -2.5
Battle of the M’s: #20 Missouri (16-4) at #14 Mississippi State (16-5)
Many times in life, if I can’t figure out which team I want to bet to cover, I will bet the over. Sports are more fun when you are rooting for good things to happen and I love watching teams succeed. Plus, it’s always easier to talk yourself into an over than an under. That means that if I give out an under, I must really believe that the game is going under the total. Take the under in this matchup. Both teams have top 60 defenses in the country, and both teams play at an average pace of play. I expect both teams to come out slow as they try to feel the other team out, because this game has huge postseason ramifications. Don’t be shocked if this game has an extremely low total points scored at the half.
Under 149.5.
Scouting Mission: #1 Auburn (19-1) at #23 Ole Miss (16-5)
If you haven’t figured it out by now, the SEC is a very deep and strong basketball conference. There is even talk that more than half of the league will get into the Tournament this year! Auburn is the crown jewel of the conference, ranked number 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 11 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Tigers forward Johni Broome has been electric all year, with some even saying that he was the best player in the country this season before his injury. Ole Miss, on the other hand, is a strong team defensively that has a slightly above average offense. They are a strong team, but not as strong as the top team in the SEC. Now, I might be getting risky here for my first article, but I’ve got a double dipper. I love Auburn to cover this number, and I love the under with how strong both defenses are. Sometimes you have to risk it for the biscuit!
Auburn -5.5 and under 149.5.
Big 12 Game of the Week: #22 Texas Tech (16-4) at #6 Houston (17-3)
TAKE THE UNDER AS FAST AS YOU CAN! Both Texas Tech and Houston want to slow the game down. Currently, Texas Tech is ranked 292 in possessions per 40 minutes and Houston is even worse! Or better if you like slow basketball. Neither team wants to play fast. They both want quality looks, and they don’t care how long it takes them to find them. Another important thing to remember, Houston has the number one ranked defense according to KenPom and they just smother opposing offenses. This is going to be a slow, gritty defensive battle. In those types of games I’ve made my position clear, always take the under.
Under 130.5.
Rivalry Game: North Carolina (13-9) at #2 Duke (18-2)
This game is simple, take the Blue Devils. Duke has the 6th ranked offense and 3rd ranked defense in efficiency in the country. They play strong defense and get good quality looks on the other end of the court. If the game gets a bit wonky and weird, Cooper Flagg is there to save the day for the Blue Devils. North Carolina is a slightly above average team. They play good defense and good offense, but they are not great at either of these things. Plus, the Tar Heels have to go on the road to play the second ranked team in the country. Good Luck, Tar Heels!
Duke -13.5.
Conclusion
It’s finally time to start preparing for March and I can’t think of a better slate of games than these for diving into the college basketball season. After reading the article, yes, math is my secret weapon. Do I fully understand it? No, but I understand the math enough to know which teams give us the best chance of winning our bets. It feels good to be excited about a Saturday slate again! Good luck and go math.
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